Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
10/26 Game 1
Matsugase Takaya finished 1st (+53.9pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Matsugase Takaya ron 12,000 from Kayamori Sayaka, which moved Matsugase Takaya's expected points by +33.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sugawara Hiroe 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Sugawara Hiroe Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -5.2 | -0.1 | -3.1 | +8.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Matsugase Takaya ron 12,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 22% | 23% | 22% | 32% | -1.4 | -2.6 | -29.3 | +33.4 |
| East 3 | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 5,200 | 16% | 15% | 7% | 62% | -1.8 | -3.8 | -8.6 | +14.1 |
| East 4 | Sugawara Hiroe ron 1,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 11% | 10% | 3% | 76% | +1.2 | +0.5 | -3.9 | +2.2 |
| South 1 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 8,000 | 9% | 8% | 2% | 81% | -13.7 | +19.8 | -4.0 | -2.2 |
| South 2 | Draw | 3% | 16% | 2% | 80% | -2.3 | +6.6 | -1.2 | -3.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 2% | 23% | 1% | 74% | +0.1 | -3.5 | -0.7 | +4.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 2% | 15% | 1% | 82% | -14.4 | -7.3 | +30.7 | -9.1 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 2,000 from Matsugase Takaya | 2% | 15% | 7% | 77% | -1.4 | +2.0 | +7.5 | -8.2 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Draw | 2% | 21% | 11% | 66% | -1.0 | +6.4 | -9.1 | +3.7 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 3,900 from Sugawara Hiroe | 1% | 23% | 3% | 73% | -13.5 | -7.0 | +10.9 | +9.6 |