Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
10/26 Game 1
Takaya Matsugase finished 1st (+53.9pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Takaya Matsugase ron 12,000 from Sayaka Kayamori, which moved Takaya Matsugase's expected points by +31.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hiroe Sugawara 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Hiroe Sugawara Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 22% | 25% | 26% | -5.0 | -2.6 | -2.4 | +10.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 12,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 21% | 22% | 22% | 34% | +1.3 | -1.3 | -31.7 | +31.7 |
| East 3 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 5,200 | 17% | 16% | 7% | 61% | -3.2 | -2.3 | -9.4 | +14.9 |
| East 4 | Hiroe Sugawara ron 1,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 11% | 10% | 2% | 76% | +1.8 | -2.1 | -1.0 | +1.3 |
| South 1 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 8,000 | 9% | 7% | 2% | 82% | -15.3 | +21.8 | -4.2 | -2.2 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 18% | 2% | 78% | -0.9 | +3.9 | -0.5 | -2.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 20% | 2% | 75% | -0.5 | -1.4 | -3.0 | +4.9 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 14% | 1% | 84% | -14.2 | -7.3 | +31.4 | -9.9 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 2% | 15% | 8% | 76% | -0.7 | +2.2 | +5.6 | -7.1 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 20% | 11% | 68% | -1.9 | +6.6 | -7.2 | +2.4 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 3,900 from Hiroe Sugawara | 2% | 23% | 3% | 73% | -13.4 | -7.1 | +10.7 | +9.8 |