Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
10/26 Game 2
Arisa Date finished 1st (+60.6pt). The game was decided in East 1: Arisa Date tsumo 12,000, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +33.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Rumi Nikaido 1st-place chance | Hiroshi Daigo 1st-place chance | Daisuke Suzuki 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Rumi Nikaido Expected pt change | Hiroshi Daigo Expected pt change | Daisuke Suzuki Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 26% | 24% | 25% | -17.9 | -8.9 | -7.1 | +33.8 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 17% | 18% | 52% | -1.8 | -5.8 | +8.8 | -1.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Hiroshi Daigo | 12% | 14% | 23% | 51% | +0.5 | -28.0 | -3.4 | +30.9 |
| East 4 | Arisa Date tsumo 3,000 | 6% | 2% | 9% | 83% | -1.7 | -0.6 | -1.8 | +4.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 2,000 | 4% | 2% | 8% | 86% | +10.6 | -5.7 | -2.3 | -2.5 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 6% | 1% | 7% | 86% | +0.5 | +3.7 | -3.8 | -0.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Daisuke Suzuki ron 6,400 from Hiroshi Daigo | 6% | 1% | 6% | 86% | -3.8 | -12.9 | +16.6 | +0.1 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 1% | 10% | 87% | -3.3 | +3.5 | +2.3 | -2.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 1% | 12% | 84% | -2.0 | -5.5 | +4.2 | +3.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Arisa Date ron 1,300 from Daisuke Suzuki | 1% | 0% | 11% | 88% | -0.9 | -1.1 | -6.0 | +7.9 |
| South 4 | Rumi Nikaido ron 12,000 from Arisa Date | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | +30.1 | +0.1 | -17.3 | -12.9 |