Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
10/27 Game 2
Sho Shiratori finished 1st (+54.0pt). The game was decided in South 4, 3 honba: Sho Shiratori ron 3,900 from Maki Asami, which moved Sho Shiratori's expected points by +47.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Maki Asami 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Maki Asami Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 24% | 26% | 27% | +29.9 | -9.2 | -10.1 | -10.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Maki Asami tsumo 5,200 | 47% | 17% | 18% | 18% | -6.1 | -4.1 | +15.7 | -5.4 |
| East 2 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 3,000 | 42% | 16% | 27% | 16% | -1.3 | +6.6 | -3.7 | -1.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 4,000 | 40% | 19% | 26% | 15% | -1.1 | -7.4 | -8.5 | +17.0 |
| East 3 | Tomohiro Honda ron 1,000 from Maki Asami | 40% | 14% | 21% | 24% | -0.9 | +4.4 | -4.9 | +1.3 |
| East 4 | Tomohiro Honda ron 3,900 from Maki Asami | 40% | 18% | 16% | 26% | +1.8 | -4.1 | -8.1 | +10.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 3,900 from Maki Asami | 41% | 13% | 12% | 33% | +3.0 | +11.1 | -12.8 | -1.3 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 43% | 18% | 8% | 31% | -5.4 | +4.6 | +2.4 | -1.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 40% | 23% | 8% | 29% | +11.2 | -5.3 | -3.6 | -2.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 52% | 15% | 7% | 26% | +4.0 | +11.1 | -9.7 | -5.4 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 3,900 from Maki Asami | 60% | 19% | 1% | 20% | -22.6 | +47.6 | -8.3 | -16.8 |