Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
11/2 Game 2
Matsumoto Yoshihiro finished 1st (+77.1pt). The game was decided in South 3: Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 18,000, which moved Matsumoto Yoshihiro's expected points by +49.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Asami Maki 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Asami Maki Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Asami Maki ron 4,800 from Takamiya Mari | 25% | 26% | 23% | 26% | +12.2 | -0.8 | +0.9 | -12.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Asami Maki tsumo 12,000 | 33% | 24% | 24% | 19% | +29.5 | -9.8 | -9.6 | -10.0 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 8,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 60% | 15% | 15% | 10% | -0.5 | +19.8 | -21.2 | +1.9 |
| East 2 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 8,000 | 58% | 24% | 7% | 11% | -2.8 | -8.0 | -9.4 | +20.1 |
| East 3 | Draw | 55% | 20% | 5% | 20% | -1.5 | -3.4 | +6.5 | -1.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Asami Maki ron 6,400 from Nikaido Aki | 55% | 18% | 7% | 20% | +19.8 | -17.2 | -2.2 | -0.3 |
| East 4 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 5,200 | 77% | 6% | 4% | 13% | +0.7 | -4.3 | +11.2 | -7.6 |
| South 1 | Draw | 82% | 4% | 5% | 9% | +4.2 | -0.4 | -1.5 | -2.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 8,000 | 85% | 4% | 5% | 7% | -9.1 | -5.9 | -8.2 | +23.2 |
| South 2 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 12,000 from Takamiya Mari | 76% | 3% | 3% | 17% | +4.2 | -6.0 | +34.3 | -32.5 |
| South 3 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 18,000 | 86% | 0% | 9% | 5% | -28.9 | -9.6 | +49.9 | -11.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 6,000 | 31% | 0% | 66% | 2% | -9.5 | -1.9 | +14.9 | -3.6 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 5,800 from Takamiya Mari | 11% | 0% | 87% | 1% | -2.5 | +4.6 | +9.5 | -11.6 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Asami Maki ron 12,000 from Takamiya Mari | 5% | 0% | 95% | 0% | +21.5 | +6.5 | -7.3 | -20.6 |
| South 4 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 1,000 from Nikaido Aki | 21% | 0% | 79% | 0% | -9.3 | +1.2 | +11.0 | -2.8 |