Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
11/2 Game 2
Yoshihiro Matsumoto finished 1st (+77.1pt). The game was decided in South 3: Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 18,000, which moved Yoshihiro Matsumoto's expected points by +50.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Maki Asami 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Maki Asami Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Maki Asami ron 4,800 from Mari Takamiya | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | +12.7 | -0.2 | -0.8 | -11.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Maki Asami tsumo 12,000 | 34% | 26% | 23% | 18% | +32.2 | -13.5 | -8.7 | -10.0 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 62% | 13% | 15% | 11% | -3.3 | +24.2 | -21.7 | +0.7 |
| East 2 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 8,000 | 56% | 26% | 8% | 10% | -1.6 | -12.4 | -7.5 | +21.6 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 57% | 18% | 5% | 20% | -3.0 | +0.1 | +4.5 | -1.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Maki Asami ron 6,400 from Aki Nikaido | 54% | 19% | 7% | 20% | +19.5 | -15.7 | -2.6 | -1.2 |
| East 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 5,200 | 75% | 8% | 3% | 14% | +1.6 | -5.7 | +11.8 | -7.7 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 81% | 5% | 5% | 9% | +3.4 | -0.6 | -1.4 | -1.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 8,000 | 84% | 6% | 4% | 7% | -9.4 | -7.0 | -7.2 | +23.6 |
| South 2 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 12,000 from Mari Takamiya | 75% | 4% | 3% | 18% | +6.1 | -5.7 | +32.2 | -32.6 |
| South 3 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 18,000 | 87% | 0% | 8% | 5% | -28.4 | -10.7 | +50.3 | -11.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 6,000 | 33% | 0% | 65% | 3% | -10.9 | -1.5 | +15.9 | -3.5 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 5,800 from Mari Takamiya | 11% | 0% | 87% | 1% | -2.0 | +5.0 | +9.4 | -12.4 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Maki Asami ron 12,000 from Mari Takamiya | 5% | 0% | 95% | 0% | +21.2 | +6.7 | -7.5 | -20.4 |
| South 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 1,000 from Aki Nikaido | 21% | 0% | 79% | 0% | -9.2 | +0.9 | +11.1 | -2.8 |