Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
11/3 Game 1
Tomohiro Honda finished 1st (+68.1pt). The game was decided in South 4: Tomohiro Honda ron 8,000 from Kana Nakada, which moved Tomohiro Honda's expected points by +43.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Kana Nakada 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Kana Nakada Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 25% | 24% | 24% | +2.3 | 0.0 | +0.6 | -2.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 28% | 24% | 25% | 23% | -25.6 | -0.8 | -3.2 | +29.6 |
| East 2 | Tomohiro Honda ron 12,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 11% | 22% | 21% | 46% | -25.3 | +28.2 | -0.9 | -2.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 5,800 from Sayaka Kayamori | 4% | 40% | 17% | 40% | -9.2 | +14.8 | -1.8 | -3.8 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 53% | 13% | 32% | +2.6 | -0.9 | -1.3 | -0.4 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 54% | 13% | 31% | +1.5 | -3.3 | +4.6 | -2.8 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 51% | 17% | 30% | -1.5 | -1.1 | +4.7 | -2.2 |
| East 3, 5 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 2% | 49% | 19% | 30% | -14.8 | -4.3 | -7.3 | +26.4 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 38% | 10% | 51% | +12.0 | -3.4 | -3.8 | -4.8 |
| South 1 | Tomohiro Honda ron 2,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 1% | 37% | 11% | 51% | -6.5 | +6.2 | -0.2 | +0.5 |
| South 2 | Kana Nakada ron 2,600 from Sayaka Kayamori | 0% | 42% | 8% | 50% | -2.7 | +0.7 | +2.1 | -0.1 |
| South 3 | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 6,400 from Sayaka Kayamori | 0% | 45% | 8% | 47% | -6.3 | -10.3 | -6.6 | +23.2 |
| South 4 | Tomohiro Honda ron 8,000 from Kana Nakada | 0% | 15% | 0% | 85% | +0.1 | +43.1 | -8.0 | -35.2 |