Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
11/3 Game 2
Kurosawa Saki finished 1st (+69.4pt). The game was decided in South 4: Kurosawa Saki ron 8,000 from Shibukawa Namba, which moved Kurosawa Saki's expected points by +46.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Sarukawa Masatoshi 1st-place chance | Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance | Tojyo Rio 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change | Sarukawa Masatoshi Expected pt change | Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change | Tojyo Rio Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 4,000 | 27% | 25% | 24% | 24% | -6.8 | -1.9 | +13.6 | -4.9 |
| East 2 | Draw | 21% | 24% | 35% | 21% | -5.8 | +2.3 | -3.4 | +6.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sarukawa Masatoshi ron 18,000 from Tojyo Rio | 18% | 25% | 32% | 26% | +0.1 | +44.6 | -2.3 | -42.4 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Shibukawa Namba ron 5,200 from Sarukawa Masatoshi | 12% | 60% | 23% | 6% | +16.6 | -14.5 | -1.5 | -0.6 |
| East 3 | Kurosawa Saki ron 12,000 from Sarukawa Masatoshi | 25% | 47% | 23% | 6% | +1.0 | -33.1 | +31.6 | +0.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sarukawa Masatoshi tsumo 2,000 | 24% | 17% | 53% | 6% | -3.7 | +8.5 | -2.3 | -2.5 |
| East 4 | Kurosawa Saki ron 1,000 from Tojyo Rio | 21% | 22% | 52% | 6% | +2.4 | -0.2 | +4.1 | -6.2 |
| South 1 | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 12,000 | 21% | 20% | 57% | 2% | +32.9 | -11.9 | -16.0 | -5.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Draw | 53% | 12% | 33% | 2% | -1.4 | +2.3 | -1.1 | +0.2 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Sarukawa Masatoshi tsumo 1,500 | 54% | 14% | 31% | 2% | -3.4 | +8.3 | -3.2 | -1.7 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Shibukawa Namba ron 3,900 from Kurosawa Saki | 51% | 18% | 30% | 1% | +21.1 | -1.9 | -19.2 | -0.1 |
| South 3 | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 12,000 | 81% | 8% | 10% | 1% | -17.2 | -15.0 | +36.5 | -4.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Draw | 51% | 5% | 44% | 1% | -1.8 | +0.8 | +4.0 | -3.0 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Shibukawa Namba ron 8,000 from Tojyo Rio | 45% | 5% | 50% | 1% | +30.2 | -3.1 | -17.0 | -10.1 |
| South 4 | Kurosawa Saki ron 8,000 from Shibukawa Namba | 90% | 0% | 10% | 0% | -44.0 | -0.2 | +46.6 | -2.4 |