Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
11/3 Game 2
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+69.4pt). The game was decided in South 4: Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Namba Shibukawa, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +46.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Masatoshi Sarukawa 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Masatoshi Sarukawa Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 4,000 | 25% | 26% | 24% | 24% | -6.2 | -5.3 | +16.8 | -5.3 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 22% | 36% | 22% | -3.6 | +5.4 | -6.9 | +5.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Masatoshi Sarukawa ron 18,000 from Rio Tojyo | 19% | 26% | 31% | 25% | -1.1 | +45.4 | -0.9 | -43.4 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 5,200 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 12% | 63% | 21% | 4% | +16.8 | -14.0 | -2.9 | +0.2 |
| East 3 | Saki Kurosawa ron 12,000 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 23% | 49% | 23% | 5% | +0.8 | -34.3 | +32.7 | +0.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 2,000 | 23% | 18% | 54% | 5% | -1.0 | +6.0 | -3.2 | -1.7 |
| East 4 | Saki Kurosawa ron 1,000 from Rio Tojyo | 23% | 22% | 51% | 4% | -1.3 | +1.3 | +5.2 | -5.2 |
| South 1 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000 | 19% | 21% | 58% | 2% | +33.2 | -12.7 | -15.1 | -5.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 51% | 12% | 35% | 2% | -2.0 | +3.5 | -0.9 | -0.6 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 1,500 | 51% | 14% | 34% | 1% | -1.8 | +7.5 | -4.9 | -0.8 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 3,900 from Saki Kurosawa | 50% | 19% | 30% | 1% | +21.6 | -1.7 | -20.4 | +0.4 |
| South 3 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 81% | 9% | 9% | 1% | -18.1 | -14.6 | +38.6 | -5.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 49% | 4% | 46% | 0% | -1.2 | +0.3 | +2.9 | -2.0 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 8,000 from Rio Tojyo | 45% | 5% | 49% | 1% | +30.2 | -3.2 | -17.0 | -10.1 |
| South 4 | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 91% | 0% | 9% | 0% | -44.1 | -0.1 | +46.7 | -2.5 |