Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
11/6 Game 2
Aki Nikaido finished 1st (+72.2pt). The game was decided in East 3, 2 honba: Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000, which moved Aki Nikaido's expected points by +38.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Masatoshi Sarukawa 1st-place chance | Hiroshi Daigo 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Masatoshi Sarukawa Expected pt change | Hiroshi Daigo Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hiroshi Daigo tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 25% | 26% | 25% | -19.2 | +31.6 | -6.2 | -6.3 |
| East 2 | Hiroshi Daigo ron 2,900 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 11% | 50% | 19% | 20% | -7.0 | +11.2 | -0.6 | -3.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 8% | 61% | 16% | 16% | +4.0 | -3.3 | -4.6 | +3.9 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 9% | 59% | 14% | 18% | -9.1 | -10.9 | -18.3 | +38.3 |
| East 4 | Aki Nikaido ron 5,800 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 5% | 42% | 6% | 47% | -0.8 | -4.4 | -10.5 | +15.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 9,600 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 4% | 31% | 3% | 63% | -15.3 | -5.0 | +3.4 | +16.9 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 3,900 | 1% | 18% | 1% | 79% | -3.1 | -3.0 | -2.0 | +8.1 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Hiroshi Daigo ron 1,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 1% | 12% | 1% | 86% | +1.2 | +1.4 | -2.7 | +0.1 |
| South 1 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 4,000 | 1% | 10% | 1% | 89% | -5.4 | -1.0 | +0.1 | +6.2 |
| South 2 | Hiroshi Daigo tsumo 7,800 | 0% | 7% | 1% | 93% | -2.9 | +11.9 | -2.9 | -6.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 1,300 from Hiroshi Daigo | 0% | 15% | 1% | 85% | -0.4 | -7.5 | +1.3 | +6.6 |
| South 3 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 4% | 0% | 96% | -10.2 | -4.4 | +19.1 | -4.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 4% | 1% | 95% | +4.5 | -0.5 | -5.0 | +0.9 |
| South 4 | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 99% | +7.6 | -2.0 | -0.8 | -4.9 |