Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
11/7 Game 2
Masato Hagiwara finished 1st (+62.1pt). The game was decided in East 3: Masato Hagiwara tsumo 12,000, which moved Masato Hagiwara's expected points by +33.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Masato Hagiwara ron 1,000 from Mari Takamiya | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -8.0 | +0.4 | +5.4 | +2.2 |
| East 2 | Go Kobayashi ron 6,400 from Mari Takamiya | 20% | 24% | 29% | 26% | -16.9 | -0.1 | -0.5 | +17.5 |
| East 3 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 12,000 | 11% | 22% | 28% | 39% | -11.2 | -12.1 | +33.4 | -10.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 4,000 | 6% | 12% | 55% | 27% | +15.1 | -6.4 | -5.2 | -3.4 |
| East 4 | Mari Takamiya ron 2,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 12% | 11% | 52% | 25% | +7.1 | -1.5 | -2.0 | -3.6 |
| South 1 | Mari Takamiya ron 12,000 from Sayaka Okada | 15% | 10% | 53% | 22% | +36.4 | -26.7 | -6.4 | -3.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 40% | 3% | 40% | 17% | +5.7 | -0.8 | -1.7 | -3.2 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 4,000 | 45% | 3% | 37% | 16% | -10.2 | -3.7 | +18.4 | -4.5 |
| South 2 | Masato Hagiwara ron 1,000 from Mari Takamiya | 28% | 2% | 59% | 11% | -2.9 | -3.6 | +5.2 | +1.3 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 0% | 68% | 10% | -1.5 | +3.0 | +2.5 | -4.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 1,500 from Sayaka Okada | 15% | 0% | 77% | 7% | -3.4 | -2.0 | +1.0 | +4.5 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 2,000 from Go Kobayashi | 11% | 0% | 79% | 9% | -1.1 | -0.2 | +12.0 | -10.7 |