Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
11/7 Game 2
Hagiwara Masato finished 1st (+62.1pt). The game was decided in East 3: Hagiwara Masato tsumo 12,000, which moved Hagiwara Masato's expected points by +35.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Kobayashi Go 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change | Kobayashi Go Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hagiwara Masato ron 1,000 from Takamiya Mari | 24% | 25% | 25% | 26% | -7.4 | -0.4 | +7.0 | +0.8 |
| East 2 | Kobayashi Go ron 6,400 from Takamiya Mari | 20% | 24% | 29% | 27% | -13.7 | -2.9 | -0.3 | +16.9 |
| East 3 | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 12,000 | 12% | 20% | 27% | 41% | -13.7 | -10.2 | +35.8 | -11.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 4,000 | 5% | 12% | 58% | 25% | +14.8 | -5.6 | -8.7 | -0.5 |
| East 4 | Takamiya Mari ron 2,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 11% | 11% | 52% | 27% | +8.0 | -1.2 | -1.6 | -5.3 |
| South 1 | Takamiya Mari ron 12,000 from Okada Sayaka | 14% | 12% | 52% | 22% | +36.1 | -27.3 | -4.3 | -4.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Draw | 38% | 3% | 42% | 16% | +6.1 | -1.2 | -3.8 | -1.1 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 4,000 | 45% | 3% | 36% | 16% | -9.8 | -4.0 | +19.8 | -6.0 |
| South 2 | Hagiwara Masato ron 1,000 from Takamiya Mari | 29% | 1% | 60% | 10% | -2.2 | -3.5 | +5.2 | +0.5 |
| South 3 | Draw | 23% | 0% | 68% | 9% | -2.5 | +3.3 | +1.3 | -2.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kobayashi Go ron 1,500 from Okada Sayaka | 16% | 0% | 76% | 8% | -3.8 | -2.1 | +1.0 | +4.9 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Hagiwara Masato ron 2,000 from Kobayashi Go | 12% | 0% | 78% | 10% | -0.7 | -0.1 | +12.3 | -11.5 |