Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
11/10 Game 2
Hiroe Sugawara finished 1st (+67.4pt). The game was decided in East 3, 2 honba: Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 12,000, which moved Hiroe Sugawara's expected points by +34.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Hiroe Sugawara 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Hiroe Sugawara Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 25% | 24% | 26% | -10.4 | +21.3 | -5.9 | -5.0 |
| East 2 | Aiko Hinata ron 12,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 17% | 41% | 20% | 22% | +35.8 | -37.1 | +2.5 | -1.1 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 44% | 13% | 22% | 21% | -2.3 | -1.2 | +4.3 | -0.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 7,800 | 42% | 14% | 24% | 21% | -10.0 | -7.2 | +23.5 | -6.3 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 12,000 | 30% | 10% | 42% | 18% | -13.4 | -8.5 | +34.0 | -12.0 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 6,000 | 12% | 4% | 76% | 8% | -2.8 | -3.3 | +10.1 | -4.1 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 8,000 | 8% | 2% | 85% | 5% | +19.4 | -4.0 | -9.3 | -6.1 |
| East 4 | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 12,000 | 19% | 2% | 75% | 4% | -7.4 | +26.2 | -0.3 | -18.5 |
| South 1 | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 8,000 | 14% | 6% | 79% | 1% | -15.1 | +18.1 | -1.3 | -1.6 |
| South 2 | Arisa Date tsumo 8,000 | 6% | 12% | 81% | 1% | -2.9 | -10.2 | +2.8 | +10.3 |
| South 3 | Hiroe Sugawara ron 5,800 from Aiko Hinata | 4% | 4% | 91% | 2% | -12.4 | +3.2 | +9.2 | 0.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 1% | 97% | 1% | +1.6 | +4.1 | -1.7 | -4.0 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Arisa Date ron 5,800 from Aiko Hinata | 0% | 1% | 98% | 1% | -20.9 | +1.1 | -0.6 | +20.4 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 3,200 | 0% | 1% | 97% | 2% | -8.3 | +8.4 | +0.8 | -0.9 |