Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
11/10 Game 2
Sugawara Hiroe finished 1st (+67.4pt). The game was decided in East 3, 2 honba: Sugawara Hiroe tsumo 12,000, which moved Sugawara Hiroe's expected points by +30.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Uchikawa Kotaro 1st-place chance | Sugawara Hiroe 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change | Uchikawa Kotaro Expected pt change | Sugawara Hiroe Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Uchikawa Kotaro tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -12.9 | +22.7 | -5.0 | -4.8 |
| East 2 | Hinata Aiko ron 12,000 from Uchikawa Kotaro | 16% | 42% | 22% | 21% | +37.2 | -37.6 | +0.7 | -0.3 |
| East 3 | Draw | 45% | 14% | 20% | 21% | -1.0 | -1.3 | +6.0 | -3.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sugawara Hiroe tsumo 7,800 | 44% | 13% | 25% | 18% | -11.1 | -8.7 | +24.5 | -4.7 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Sugawara Hiroe tsumo 12,000 | 30% | 10% | 45% | 16% | -12.8 | -6.7 | +30.6 | -11.2 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Sugawara Hiroe tsumo 6,000 | 14% | 4% | 74% | 7% | -5.2 | -2.5 | +12.7 | -5.0 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Hinata Aiko tsumo 8,000 | 7% | 2% | 86% | 4% | +19.7 | -5.0 | -9.6 | -5.1 |
| East 4 | Uchikawa Kotaro tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 3% | 76% | 3% | -4.0 | +22.6 | -2.8 | -15.8 |
| South 1 | Uchikawa Kotaro tsumo 8,000 | 17% | 5% | 76% | 2% | -17.4 | +23.2 | -1.0 | -4.8 |
| South 2 | Date Arisa tsumo 8,000 | 6% | 14% | 78% | 1% | -3.2 | -12.6 | +3.6 | +12.2 |
| South 3 | Sugawara Hiroe ron 5,800 from Hinata Aiko | 4% | 5% | 89% | 2% | -12.2 | +3.0 | +10.1 | -0.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Draw | 0% | 2% | 97% | 1% | +2.2 | +4.8 | -1.9 | -5.0 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Date Arisa ron 5,800 from Hinata Aiko | 0% | 1% | 98% | 1% | -21.8 | +1.3 | -0.6 | +21.1 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro tsumo 3,200 | 0% | 1% | 97% | 2% | -8.2 | +8.1 | +0.7 | -0.6 |