Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
11/13 Game 1
Aki Nikaido finished 1st (+69.3pt). The game was decided in South 4, 3 honba: Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000, which moved Aki Nikaido's expected points by +40.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hiroshi Daigo 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Daisuke Suzuki 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Hiroshi Daigo Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Daisuke Suzuki Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hiroshi Daigo ron 5,800 from Daisuke Suzuki | 26% | 25% | 26% | 24% | +15.6 | +0.1 | -15.0 | -0.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 3,900 from Hiroshi Daigo | 37% | 25% | 15% | 22% | -11.4 | +0.3 | +1.3 | +9.8 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 25% | 18% | 31% | -4.3 | +2.9 | +1.9 | -0.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 12,000 from Aki Nikaido | 24% | 27% | 18% | 31% | -1.7 | +36.3 | -2.4 | -32.2 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Hiroshi Daigo ron 2,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 20% | 58% | 13% | 10% | +7.7 | -7.1 | -1.7 | +1.1 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 50% | 14% | 12% | -1.9 | +1.8 | -3.2 | +3.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 3,000 | 23% | 54% | 11% | 13% | -3.6 | -2.8 | -2.8 | +9.2 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,000 from Daisuke Suzuki | 23% | 51% | 11% | 15% | -1.3 | +9.0 | -7.2 | -0.5 |
| South 1 | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Daisuke Suzuki | 18% | 62% | 7% | 13% | -2.8 | +0.5 | -18.9 | +21.2 |
| South 2 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 7,800 | 13% | 62% | 3% | 23% | -7.5 | +18.0 | -2.3 | -8.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 7,700 from Daisuke Suzuki | 5% | 83% | 2% | 11% | -0.8 | +12.7 | -10.8 | -1.1 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 6,000 | 1% | 93% | 0% | 6% | -2.0 | +8.8 | -3.6 | -3.2 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 97% | 0% | 3% | -2.3 | -2.4 | -0.6 | +5.3 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Daisuke Suzuki tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 96% | 0% | 3% | -15.1 | -6.9 | +33.8 | -11.8 |
| South 3, 5 honba | Hiroshi Daigo tsumo 6,400 | 0% | 96% | 2% | 3% | +27.7 | -0.9 | -17.9 | -8.8 |
| South 4 | Aki Nikaido ron 1,500 from Daisuke Suzuki | 0% | 98% | 0% | 2% | -0.4 | -0.2 | -4.5 | +5.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 7,800 | 0% | 97% | 0% | 3% | -15.2 | -3.5 | -3.0 | +21.8 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 7,800 | 0% | 95% | 0% | 5% | -5.3 | -7.7 | -2.7 | +15.6 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 83% | 0% | 17% | -4.2 | -32.1 | -4.5 | +40.8 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 13% | 0% | 87% | -0.5 | -3.0 | -0.9 | +4.3 |