Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
11/14 Game 1
Shingo Hori finished 1st (+81.3pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Shingo Hori tsumo 12,000, which moved Shingo Hori's expected points by +33.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 26% | 24% | 26% | -10.4 | +23.3 | -7.3 | -5.6 |
| East 2 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 12,000 | 16% | 43% | 21% | 20% | -11.1 | +28.0 | -9.3 | -7.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 6,400 from Naoki Setokuma | 8% | 69% | 11% | 12% | -15.2 | +1.7 | +13.8 | -0.3 |
| East 3 | Shingo Hori tsumo 1,100 | 4% | 72% | 14% | 11% | 0.0 | -0.3 | -1.4 | +1.7 |
| East 4 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 4% | 73% | 13% | 11% | -4.4 | -3.1 | +20.0 | -12.5 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 69% | 23% | 5% | +4.5 | -2.5 | -0.4 | -1.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Shingo Hori tsumo 12,000 | 4% | 66% | 24% | 6% | -17.9 | -5.1 | -10.2 | +33.1 |
| South 2 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 62% | 18% | 20% | -4.5 | +25.4 | -10.7 | -10.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 90% | 5% | 5% | +1.5 | -2.9 | -4.1 | +5.5 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Taro Suzuki ron 1,300 from Naoki Setokuma | 0% | 90% | 4% | 7% | -2.7 | +5.8 | -4.2 | +1.1 |
| South 4 | Shingo Hori ron 18,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 0% | 97% | 0% | 3% | +4.3 | -5.8 | -26.7 | +28.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Shingo Hori tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 82% | 0% | 18% | -1.9 | -14.8 | -2.4 | +19.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Shingo Hori tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 52% | 0% | 49% | -4.1 | -23.5 | -4.4 | +32.1 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 3% | 0% | 97% | -3.3 | +0.8 | +4.0 | -1.6 |