Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
11/14 Game 1
Hori Shingo finished 1st (+81.3pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Hori Shingo tsumo 12,000, which moved Hori Shingo's expected points by +34.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Suzuki Taro 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Suzuki Taro Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Hori Shingo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Suzuki Taro tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -12.0 | +24.0 | -7.3 | -4.7 |
| East 2 | Suzuki Taro tsumo 12,000 | 16% | 43% | 20% | 21% | -10.8 | +28.8 | -8.8 | -9.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 6,400 from Setokuma Naoki | 7% | 70% | 11% | 11% | -13.6 | -0.6 | +15.0 | -0.8 |
| East 3 | Hori Shingo tsumo 1,100 | 4% | 69% | 14% | 12% | -0.8 | +3.0 | -4.8 | +2.6 |
| East 4 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000 | 3% | 75% | 11% | 11% | -5.5 | -4.9 | +23.3 | -12.9 |
| South 1 | Draw | 3% | 68% | 24% | 5% | +5.7 | -1.2 | -2.6 | -2.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Hori Shingo tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 68% | 23% | 5% | -17.9 | -6.5 | -9.5 | +34.0 |
| South 2 | Suzuki Taro tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 61% | 19% | 20% | -4.0 | +25.6 | -10.5 | -11.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 0% | 90% | 5% | 6% | +1.1 | -1.8 | -3.6 | +4.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Suzuki Taro ron 1,300 from Setokuma Naoki | 0% | 91% | 4% | 5% | -2.8 | +4.4 | -4.6 | +3.0 |
| South 4 | Hori Shingo ron 18,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 0% | 96% | 0% | 4% | +4.4 | -6.6 | -27.3 | +29.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Hori Shingo tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 80% | 0% | 20% | -1.8 | -13.0 | -2.1 | +17.0 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Hori Shingo tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 52% | 0% | 48% | -4.5 | -24.2 | -3.8 | +32.4 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Draw | 0% | 2% | 0% | 98% | -3.0 | +0.9 | +3.8 | -1.7 |