Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
11/16 Game 1
Akina Mizuhara finished 1st (+60.6pt). The game was decided in South 4: Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000, which moved Akina Mizuhara's expected points by +44.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Masatoshi Sarukawa 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Masatoshi Sarukawa Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Ken Sonoda ron 8,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 24% | 24% | 26% | 26% | -2.4 | -21.8 | -3.8 | +28.0 |
| East 2 | Akina Mizuhara ron 1,500 from Mari Takamiya | 19% | 12% | 21% | 48% | -3.9 | +5.9 | +1.3 | -3.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 7,800 | 17% | 15% | 23% | 45% | -9.8 | +20.3 | -4.8 | -5.8 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 7,700 from Ken Sonoda | 14% | 26% | 21% | 39% | +1.3 | +22.7 | +0.4 | -24.4 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 45% | 21% | 20% | +0.3 | +5.4 | -4.8 | -0.9 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 5,200 | 14% | 50% | 17% | 19% | +17.0 | -8.5 | -3.8 | -4.7 |
| East 3 | Ken Sonoda ron 2,000 from Mari Takamiya | 23% | 43% | 16% | 18% | -3.0 | +1.8 | -3.6 | +4.8 |
| East 4 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 6,000 | 21% | 45% | 14% | 20% | -6.3 | -4.9 | -7.8 | +19.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 1,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 17% | 39% | 11% | 34% | +4.1 | -3.4 | -0.9 | +0.2 |
| South 1 | Akina Mizuhara ron 1,000 from Mari Takamiya | 21% | 35% | 10% | 34% | -7.3 | +7.1 | -2.2 | +2.4 |
| South 2 | Mari Takamiya ron 2,000 from Ken Sonoda | 13% | 43% | 9% | 35% | +7.7 | +1.2 | -2.0 | -6.9 |
| South 3 | Ken Sonoda ron 8,000 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 17% | 46% | 9% | 28% | -5.4 | -9.0 | -20.7 | +35.1 |
| South 4 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000 | 8% | 20% | 0% | 71% | -8.5 | +44.9 | -3.2 | -33.2 |