Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
11/16 Game 1
Mizuhara Akina finished 1st (+60.6pt). The game was decided in South 4: Mizuhara Akina tsumo 8,000, which moved Mizuhara Akina's expected points by +43.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Sarukawa Masatoshi 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Sarukawa Masatoshi Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sonoda Ken ron 8,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 23% | 26% | 25% | 26% | -2.4 | -22.1 | +0.1 | +24.5 |
| East 2 | Mizuhara Akina ron 1,500 from Takamiya Mari | 20% | 14% | 23% | 44% | -6.4 | +6.7 | -0.4 | +0.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 7,800 | 15% | 17% | 23% | 46% | -6.5 | +19.8 | -6.2 | -7.1 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Mizuhara Akina ron 7,700 from Sonoda Ken | 15% | 28% | 19% | 38% | +1.6 | +20.5 | -0.5 | -21.6 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Draw | 15% | 44% | 18% | 22% | -1.9 | +4.9 | -0.8 | -2.3 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 5,200 | 13% | 48% | 18% | 20% | +18.7 | -7.5 | -4.8 | -6.4 |
| East 3 | Sonoda Ken ron 2,000 from Takamiya Mari | 24% | 43% | 17% | 16% | -5.3 | +2.5 | -4.2 | +7.0 |
| East 4 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 6,000 | 21% | 44% | 14% | 22% | -5.7 | -7.7 | -8.5 | +21.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari ron 1,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 17% | 36% | 9% | 38% | +4.7 | -0.7 | +0.4 | -4.4 |
| South 1 | Mizuhara Akina ron 1,000 from Takamiya Mari | 20% | 37% | 10% | 33% | -6.6 | +3.8 | -0.3 | +3.2 |
| South 2 | Takamiya Mari ron 2,000 from Sonoda Ken | 14% | 40% | 10% | 36% | +7.9 | +1.9 | -4.1 | -5.7 |
| South 3 | Sonoda Ken ron 8,000 from Sarukawa Masatoshi | 19% | 43% | 9% | 30% | -6.1 | -6.0 | -21.0 | +33.0 |
| South 4 | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 8,000 | 8% | 22% | 0% | 70% | -8.5 | +43.8 | -3.1 | -32.1 |