Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
11/16 Game 2
Futoshi Watanabe finished 1st (+69.6pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000, which moved Futoshi Watanabe's expected points by +31.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Yu Suzuki 1st-place chance | Hiroe Sugawara 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Yu Suzuki Expected pt change | Hiroe Sugawara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Yu Suzuki ron 3,900 from Hiroe Sugawara | 27% | 24% | 25% | 24% | -4.1 | +1.1 | +12.3 | -9.4 |
| East 2 | Arisa Date tsumo 2,100 | 22% | 25% | 34% | 18% | -1.3 | +4.1 | -2.6 | -0.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Hiroe Sugawara ron 2,600 from Arisa Date | 21% | 28% | 31% | 19% | +1.7 | -8.2 | -2.9 | +9.3 |
| East 3 | Hiroe Sugawara ron 2,600 from Arisa Date | 24% | 22% | 29% | 25% | -2.5 | -10.4 | -1.7 | +14.6 |
| East 4 | Arisa Date ron 2,600 from Yu Suzuki | 20% | 17% | 27% | 37% | -4.4 | +13.8 | -5.5 | -3.8 |
| South 1 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 9,600 | 20% | 24% | 23% | 33% | +31.6 | -10.0 | -10.8 | -10.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000 | 44% | 17% | 15% | 24% | +31.8 | -10.6 | -8.5 | -12.7 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 5,200 | 78% | 7% | 6% | 9% | -5.5 | +16.5 | -8.5 | -2.5 |
| South 2 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 5,200 from Arisa Date | 74% | 12% | 5% | 8% | +13.2 | -15.6 | +1.0 | +1.4 |
| South 3 | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Hiroe Sugawara | 91% | 1% | 4% | 5% | +3.3 | +23.1 | +0.4 | -26.8 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 97% | 1% | 0% | 2% | +4.1 | +2.3 | +2.9 | -9.3 |