Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
11/20 Game 2
Namba Shibukawa finished 1st (+66.5pt). The game was decided in East 4: Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000, which moved Namba Shibukawa's expected points by +33.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Hiroshi Daigo 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Hiroshi Daigo Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 26% | 23% | 26% | +30.2 | -10.9 | -8.6 | -10.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 12,000 from Hiroshi Daigo | 49% | 17% | 16% | 18% | +23.7 | +0.4 | -24.0 | -0.1 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 12,000 from Hiroshi Daigo | 71% | 12% | 5% | 12% | +22.3 | -0.4 | -20.4 | -1.5 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 8,000 from Aki Nikaido | 88% | 5% | 1% | 5% | -17.6 | -2.2 | -2.3 | +22.2 |
| East 2 | Hiroshi Daigo tsumo 5,200 | 72% | 8% | 1% | 18% | +1.5 | -9.2 | +8.2 | -0.6 |
| East 3 | Hiroshi Daigo tsumo 1,500 | 76% | 5% | 2% | 17% | +0.1 | -1.3 | +3.4 | -2.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Hiroshi Daigo tsumo 12,000 | 77% | 4% | 3% | 16% | -7.4 | -8.1 | +23.7 | -8.1 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Hiroshi Daigo tsumo 3,900 | 72% | 4% | 8% | 16% | -3.3 | -5.8 | +10.7 | -1.5 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 5,200 from Hiroshi Daigo | 70% | 4% | 10% | 16% | -1.2 | +2.3 | -14.9 | +13.8 |
| East 4 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000 | 67% | 5% | 6% | 23% | -15.1 | -9.4 | -9.3 | +33.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Hiroshi Daigo tsumo 2,000 | 40% | 2% | 2% | 56% | +1.1 | -0.7 | +3.2 | -3.5 |
| South 1 | Namba Shibukawa ron 2,600 from Aki Nikaido | 42% | 2% | 3% | 53% | -13.3 | -1.9 | +2.1 | +13.1 |
| South 2 | Saki Kurosawa ron 12,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 22% | 1% | 2% | 74% | +8.5 | +24.7 | -5.3 | -27.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 8,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 47% | 7% | 4% | 42% | -6.2 | -23.5 | +4.2 | +25.5 |
| South 3 | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Aki Nikaido | 24% | 0% | 3% | 73% | -16.7 | +18.8 | -11.9 | +9.8 |
| South 4 | Namba Shibukawa ron 5,800 from Aki Nikaido | 3% | 0% | 0% | 96% | -10.4 | +2.8 | +0.5 | +7.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -16.2 | +26.5 | -6.6 | -3.7 |