Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
11/20 Game 2
Shibukawa Namba finished 1st (+66.5pt). The game was decided in East 4: Shibukawa Namba tsumo 12,000, which moved Shibukawa Namba's expected points by +33.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance | Daigo Hiroshi 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change | Daigo Hiroshi Expected pt change | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 23% | 26% | 26% | +31.6 | -9.1 | -11.3 | -11.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 12,000 from Daigo Hiroshi | 49% | 16% | 17% | 17% | +25.8 | +1.3 | -25.8 | -1.3 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 12,000 from Daigo Hiroshi | 73% | 11% | 5% | 11% | +18.2 | 0.0 | -21.1 | +2.9 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Shibukawa Namba ron 8,000 from Nikaido Aki | 84% | 7% | 2% | 7% | -14.4 | -4.2 | +0.1 | +18.5 |
| East 2 | Daigo Hiroshi tsumo 5,200 | 74% | 8% | 1% | 17% | -0.2 | -5.8 | +7.3 | -1.3 |
| East 3 | Daigo Hiroshi tsumo 1,500 | 76% | 5% | 2% | 17% | -0.1 | -1.7 | +2.6 | -0.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Daigo Hiroshi tsumo 12,000 | 76% | 5% | 3% | 16% | -6.8 | -10.4 | +23.9 | -6.8 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Daigo Hiroshi tsumo 3,900 | 72% | 4% | 7% | 17% | -5.0 | -3.3 | +11.8 | -3.5 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Shibukawa Namba ron 5,200 from Daigo Hiroshi | 68% | 5% | 12% | 16% | +2.4 | +0.2 | -17.6 | +15.0 |
| East 4 | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 12,000 | 70% | 4% | 4% | 22% | -17.2 | -8.6 | -7.3 | +33.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Daigo Hiroshi tsumo 2,000 | 40% | 2% | 3% | 55% | 0.0 | -2.1 | +4.2 | -2.1 |
| South 1 | Shibukawa Namba ron 2,600 from Nikaido Aki | 41% | 1% | 3% | 55% | -12.0 | -0.6 | +0.5 | +12.1 |
| South 2 | Kurosawa Saki ron 12,000 from Shibukawa Namba | 22% | 1% | 3% | 74% | +10.4 | +23.1 | -5.9 | -27.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Shibukawa Namba ron 8,000 from Kurosawa Saki | 48% | 7% | 4% | 41% | -7.1 | -21.3 | +4.0 | +24.3 |
| South 3 | Kurosawa Saki ron 8,000 from Nikaido Aki | 26% | 0% | 2% | 72% | -17.3 | +18.0 | -10.8 | +10.1 |
| South 4 | Shibukawa Namba ron 5,800 from Nikaido Aki | 4% | 0% | 0% | 96% | -10.8 | +1.2 | +1.5 | +8.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -16.3 | +28.1 | -7.7 | -4.1 |