Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
11/23 Game 2
Hiroe Sugawara finished 1st (+58.1pt). The game was decided in South 1: Hiroe Sugawara ron 12,000 from Arisa Date, which moved Hiroe Sugawara's expected points by +35.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hiroe Sugawara 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Hiroe Sugawara Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 24% | 24% | 28% | -11.7 | -6.2 | -3.4 | +21.3 |
| East 2 | Arisa Date ron 2,600 from Futoshi Watanabe | 16% | 20% | 22% | 43% | +1.4 | -8.0 | +7.3 | -0.7 |
| East 3 | Aki Nikaido ron 2,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 17% | 14% | 25% | 43% | +0.7 | -5.2 | -5.8 | +10.3 |
| East 4 | Arisa Date ron 1,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 17% | 11% | 19% | 54% | -0.8 | -3.1 | +5.3 | -1.4 |
| South 1 | Hiroe Sugawara ron 12,000 from Arisa Date | 15% | 10% | 21% | 54% | +35.3 | +1.1 | -34.1 | -2.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 39% | 9% | 6% | 47% | -6.3 | +0.4 | -1.7 | +7.5 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Hiroe Sugawara ron 2,600 from Aki Nikaido | 29% | 8% | 6% | 57% | +22.1 | -4.1 | -3.9 | -14.1 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 62% | 2% | 4% | 32% | -2.5 | +2.4 | +3.1 | -3.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hiroe Sugawara ron 1,300 from Futoshi Watanabe | 59% | 4% | 5% | 32% | +14.4 | -3.8 | -8.4 | -2.3 |
| South 4 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 2,700 | 82% | 0% | 0% | 17% | +6.5 | +6.7 | -5.0 | -8.2 |