Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
11/23 Game 2
Sugawara Hiroe finished 1st (+58.1pt). The game was decided in South 1: Sugawara Hiroe ron 12,000 from Date Arisa, which moved Sugawara Hiroe's expected points by +35.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sugawara Hiroe 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Sugawara Hiroe Expected pt change | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 24% | 24% | 27% | -14.0 | -2.4 | -5.5 | +22.0 |
| East 2 | Date Arisa ron 2,600 from Watanabe Futoshi | 16% | 21% | 20% | 43% | +1.8 | -11.0 | +7.7 | +1.5 |
| East 3 | Nikaido Aki ron 2,000 from Watanabe Futoshi | 17% | 14% | 23% | 46% | -1.7 | -5.4 | +1.2 | +5.9 |
| East 4 | Date Arisa ron 1,000 from Watanabe Futoshi | 15% | 11% | 24% | 51% | -0.4 | -1.6 | +2.2 | -0.2 |
| South 1 | Sugawara Hiroe ron 12,000 from Date Arisa | 14% | 11% | 23% | 52% | +35.6 | -0.4 | -33.7 | -1.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Draw | 39% | 9% | 6% | 47% | -4.9 | +1.6 | -4.1 | +7.4 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Sugawara Hiroe ron 2,600 from Nikaido Aki | 31% | 9% | 5% | 56% | +20.8 | -5.0 | -3.1 | -12.7 |
| South 3 | Draw | 60% | 2% | 3% | 35% | -1.8 | +3.4 | +2.5 | -4.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sugawara Hiroe ron 1,300 from Watanabe Futoshi | 59% | 5% | 5% | 31% | +14.6 | -5.0 | -7.2 | -2.4 |
| South 4 | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 2,700 | 82% | 0% | 0% | 18% | +6.6 | +7.1 | -5.4 | -8.2 |