Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
12/1 Game 2
Hori Shingo finished 1st (+54.5pt). The game was decided in South 2, 2 honba: Hori Shingo tsumo 12,000, which moved Hori Shingo's expected points by +49.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 5,200 | 26% | 24% | 24% | 26% | -8.7 | -2.7 | +13.0 | -1.7 |
| East 2 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 4,000 | 20% | 23% | 34% | 24% | -3.4 | -7.6 | -0.1 | +11.1 |
| East 3 | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 18,000 | 17% | 17% | 35% | 32% | -13.1 | -12.7 | +45.0 | -19.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Hori Shingo ron 8,000 from Honda Tomohiro | 6% | 7% | 76% | 11% | +21.9 | -2.5 | -22.5 | +3.2 |
| East 4 | Draw | 19% | 8% | 54% | 18% | +6.0 | -2.2 | -3.4 | -0.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 3,000 | 24% | 8% | 50% | 18% | -5.4 | -4.9 | -2.5 | +12.7 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Hori Shingo tsumo 4,000 | 20% | 8% | 47% | 25% | +14.1 | -3.9 | -1.8 | -8.4 |
| South 1 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 5,200 from Hori Shingo | 29% | 5% | 46% | 20% | -16.1 | +11.2 | +3.9 | +1.0 |
| South 2 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 4,800 from Nakabayashi Kei | 17% | 10% | 53% | 20% | +0.3 | +14.7 | +0.6 | -15.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 17% | 16% | 54% | 13% | -13.9 | +44.6 | -16.4 | -14.3 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Hori Shingo tsumo 12,000 | 8% | 55% | 30% | 7% | +49.4 | -24.9 | -13.5 | -11.1 |
| South 3 | Draw | 53% | 23% | 20% | 4% | +4.9 | -2.2 | -6.0 | +3.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Draw | 64% | 18% | 12% | 6% | +5.9 | -3.3 | -3.7 | +1.0 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 3,900 from Nakabayashi Kei | 72% | 14% | 8% | 5% | +11.8 | +10.9 | -7.8 | -15.0 |