Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
12/1 Game 2
Shingo Hori finished 1st (+54.5pt). The game was decided in South 2, 2 honba: Shingo Hori tsumo 12,000, which moved Shingo Hori's expected points by +49.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 5,200 | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | -7.9 | -3.4 | +13.6 | -2.4 |
| East 2 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 4,000 | 19% | 23% | 35% | 23% | -2.8 | -6.9 | -2.3 | +12.0 |
| East 3 | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 18,000 | 19% | 17% | 33% | 31% | -13.9 | -14.2 | +45.0 | -17.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Shingo Hori ron 8,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 7% | 6% | 75% | 13% | +19.9 | -0.6 | -20.3 | +1.0 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 10% | 56% | 17% | +6.3 | -4.8 | -3.2 | +1.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 3,000 | 21% | 8% | 52% | 19% | -2.3 | -2.7 | -6.3 | +11.4 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Shingo Hori tsumo 4,000 | 22% | 7% | 44% | 27% | +13.4 | -3.9 | -0.1 | -9.4 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 5,200 from Shingo Hori | 30% | 6% | 44% | 19% | -18.1 | +12.2 | +4.2 | +1.7 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 4,800 from Kei Nakabayashi | 17% | 10% | 52% | 21% | +2.3 | +12.7 | +0.9 | -15.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 19% | 15% | 54% | 13% | -15.4 | +46.2 | -17.0 | -13.8 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Shingo Hori tsumo 12,000 | 9% | 56% | 29% | 7% | +49.4 | -25.2 | -13.0 | -11.2 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 54% | 23% | 20% | 4% | +6.3 | -2.6 | -5.3 | +1.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 66% | 18% | 12% | 4% | +5.0 | -3.6 | -4.7 | +3.3 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 3,900 from Kei Nakabayashi | 73% | 14% | 8% | 6% | +11.6 | +11.2 | -7.1 | -15.7 |