Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
12/4 Game 1
Mari Takamiya finished 1st (+62.3pt). The game was decided in South 4: Mari Takamiya ron 12,000 from Takaya Matsugase, which moved Mari Takamiya's expected points by +40.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Kana Nakada 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Kana Nakada Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kana Nakada ron 3,900 from Takaya Matsugase | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | -2.1 | +8.7 | -10.3 | +3.7 |
| East 2 | Kana Nakada ron 7,700 from Takaya Matsugase | 24% | 32% | 18% | 27% | -2.3 | +22.7 | -19.1 | -1.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 50% | 9% | 23% | +2.2 | -4.3 | -3.9 | +6.0 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000 | 20% | 45% | 9% | 26% | +38.9 | -11.7 | -15.7 | -11.5 |
| East 4 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 53% | 29% | 2% | 16% | -13.6 | -13.1 | -6.0 | +32.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Win | 36% | 19% | 2% | 42% | -2.6 | +21.2 | -10.8 | -7.7 |
| South 1 | Kana Nakada ron 8,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 32% | 35% | 1% | 32% | -9.2 | +24.9 | -10.2 | -5.5 |
| South 2 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 8,000 | 17% | 63% | 0% | 20% | +27.5 | -17.7 | -0.9 | -8.9 |
| South 3 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 12,000 | 48% | 37% | 0% | 15% | -3.2 | -7.0 | +13.4 | -3.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 2,000 from Kana Nakada | 50% | 33% | 1% | 16% | +14.2 | -8.2 | -2.0 | -4.0 |
| South 4 | Mari Takamiya ron 12,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 75% | 15% | 0% | 11% | -13.7 | -13.8 | -13.4 | +40.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 3,900 from Ken Sonoda | 44% | 10% | 0% | 45% | -19.3 | -8.3 | +5.1 | +22.4 |