Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
12/4 Game 1
Takamiya Mari finished 1st (+62.3pt). The game was decided in South 4: Takamiya Mari ron 12,000 from Matsugase Takaya, which moved Takamiya Mari's expected points by +40.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Nakada Kana 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Nakada Kana Expected pt change | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nakada Kana ron 3,900 from Matsugase Takaya | 26% | 23% | 27% | 24% | -1.9 | +12.7 | -12.1 | +1.3 |
| East 2 | Nakada Kana ron 7,700 from Matsugase Takaya | 24% | 32% | 19% | 26% | -0.8 | +22.1 | -20.7 | -0.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 20% | 49% | 8% | 23% | +1.3 | -4.8 | -0.9 | +4.4 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Sonoda Ken tsumo 12,000 | 21% | 44% | 9% | 26% | +37.1 | -9.5 | -16.7 | -10.9 |
| East 4 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,000 | 53% | 30% | 2% | 15% | -11.4 | -12.2 | -6.0 | +29.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Win | 40% | 21% | 2% | 37% | -5.5 | +19.9 | -11.3 | -3.1 |
| South 1 | Nakada Kana ron 8,000 from Matsugase Takaya | 30% | 37% | 1% | 32% | -8.2 | +22.7 | -9.1 | -5.5 |
| South 2 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 8,000 | 17% | 61% | 0% | 22% | +28.1 | -17.4 | -2.1 | -8.6 |
| South 3 | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 12,000 | 49% | 35% | 0% | 16% | -3.6 | -5.4 | +13.7 | -4.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 2,000 from Nakada Kana | 50% | 34% | 0% | 16% | +13.6 | -8.5 | -2.1 | -3.0 |
| South 4 | Takamiya Mari ron 12,000 from Matsugase Takaya | 73% | 15% | 0% | 12% | -13.3 | -14.5 | -12.9 | +40.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Matsugase Takaya ron 3,900 from Sonoda Ken | 43% | 10% | 0% | 47% | -19.1 | -7.8 | +4.8 | +22.1 |