Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
12/4 Game 2
Sugawara Hiroe finished 1st (+73.3pt). The game was decided in East 3: Sugawara Hiroe tsumo 18,000, which moved Sugawara Hiroe's expected points by +43.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Sugawara Hiroe 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change | Sugawara Hiroe Expected pt change | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 8,000 from Sugawara Hiroe | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -1.8 | -1.3 | -18.1 | +21.2 |
| East 2 | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 6,000 | 21% | 23% | 14% | 42% | -4.3 | +18.4 | -6.0 | -8.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 9,600 | 18% | 36% | 11% | 35% | -9.0 | +28.8 | -8.9 | -10.9 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Sugawara Hiroe tsumo 16,000 | 10% | 62% | 7% | 21% | -10.5 | -19.1 | +41.0 | -11.5 |
| East 3 | Sugawara Hiroe tsumo 18,000 | 10% | 45% | 27% | 18% | -12.3 | -19.5 | +43.4 | -11.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sugawara Hiroe tsumo 18,000 | 3% | 20% | 68% | 9% | -7.7 | -13.2 | +29.9 | -9.1 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Watanabe Futoshi ron 5,200 from Matsugase Takaya | 1% | 4% | 93% | 3% | -10.8 | -0.1 | -2.5 | +13.4 |
| East 4 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 3,900 from Sugawara Hiroe | 1% | 3% | 93% | 3% | -1.3 | -1.0 | -4.4 | +6.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 4% | 90% | 6% | -4.7 | +27.0 | -5.9 | -16.4 |
| South 1 | Sugawara Hiroe tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 15% | 82% | 2% | -7.7 | -4.8 | +14.4 | -1.9 |
| South 2 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 5,200 from Matsugase Takaya | 0% | 5% | 94% | 0% | -6.8 | -3.8 | +1.8 | +8.8 |
| South 3 | Draw | 0% | 1% | 98% | 1% | -0.4 | +0.9 | 0.0 | -0.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 1% | 98% | 1% | -2.6 | -3.1 | -3.7 | +9.4 |
| South 4 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 12,000 from Matsugase Takaya | 0% | 0% | 98% | 1% | -13.0 | -12.4 | -1.0 | +26.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Watanabe Futoshi ron 5,800 from Matsugase Takaya | 0% | 0% | 96% | 4% | -7.3 | -2.2 | -2.1 | +11.6 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Matsugase Takaya ron 8,000 from Sugawara Hiroe | 0% | 0% | 91% | 9% | +10.7 | -2.2 | -4.3 | -4.2 |