Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
12/4 Game 2
Hiroe Sugawara finished 1st (+73.3pt). The game was decided in East 3: Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 18,000, which moved Hiroe Sugawara's expected points by +43.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Hiroe Sugawara 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Hiroe Sugawara Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 8,000 from Hiroe Sugawara | 24% | 25% | 25% | 27% | -0.6 | -1.5 | -19.4 | +21.6 |
| East 2 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 6,000 | 22% | 23% | 13% | 42% | -8.0 | +19.2 | -4.2 | -7.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 9,600 | 16% | 37% | 12% | 36% | -8.2 | +27.9 | -9.0 | -10.6 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 16,000 | 9% | 62% | 6% | 22% | -12.4 | -17.4 | +39.7 | -9.9 |
| East 3 | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 18,000 | 7% | 46% | 26% | 20% | -9.2 | -20.5 | +43.6 | -13.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 18,000 | 4% | 20% | 67% | 9% | -7.8 | -14.2 | +31.8 | -9.9 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 5,200 from Takaya Matsugase | 1% | 4% | 94% | 2% | -12.0 | +1.6 | -2.4 | +12.7 |
| East 4 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 3,900 from Hiroe Sugawara | 0% | 4% | 93% | 3% | -1.1 | +0.1 | -6.1 | +7.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 5% | 89% | 6% | -3.1 | +24.4 | -4.8 | -16.5 |
| South 1 | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 14% | 83% | 2% | -8.3 | -5.8 | +14.2 | -0.2 |
| South 2 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 5,200 from Takaya Matsugase | 0% | 5% | 95% | 1% | -6.1 | -2.9 | +1.5 | +7.4 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 1% | 99% | 1% | -1.1 | +0.9 | +0.4 | -0.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 1% | 98% | 1% | -2.3 | -2.7 | -3.9 | +8.9 |
| South 4 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 12,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 0% | 0% | 98% | 2% | -13.1 | -12.9 | -1.2 | +27.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 5,800 from Takaya Matsugase | 0% | 0% | 95% | 5% | -7.1 | -2.3 | -1.8 | +11.2 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Hiroe Sugawara | 0% | 0% | 91% | 9% | +10.9 | -1.9 | -4.4 | -4.6 |