Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
12/7 Game 1
Sho Shiratori finished 1st (+54.8pt). The game was decided in East 4, 1 honba: Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000, which moved Sho Shiratori's expected points by +38.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Rumi Nikaido 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Rumi Nikaido Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 27% | 25% | 26% | -2.8 | +2.3 | -3.8 | +4.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 2,000 from Sho Shiratori | 21% | 27% | 23% | 28% | -0.2 | -9.7 | +9.1 | +0.8 |
| East 3 | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 21% | 20% | 29% | 30% | +24.9 | -6.5 | -12.1 | -6.3 |
| East 4 | Arisa Date tsumo 6,000 | 41% | 16% | 19% | 24% | -7.3 | -6.1 | -9.0 | +22.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000 | 32% | 13% | 13% | 42% | -7.0 | +38.1 | -10.1 | -21.0 |
| South 1 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 5,200 | 27% | 40% | 10% | 23% | -12.1 | +17.8 | -4.0 | -1.7 |
| South 2 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 6,000 | 13% | 60% | 7% | 20% | -6.4 | +17.0 | -3.1 | -7.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 81% | 5% | 10% | +2.6 | +0.9 | -4.0 | +0.6 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 7,800 | 4% | 85% | 3% | 8% | -11.2 | -5.3 | +26.2 | -9.8 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 2,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 3% | 80% | 8% | 8% | -8.8 | +0.6 | +10.4 | -2.2 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 81% | 11% | 6% | +1.9 | +7.4 | -4.9 | -4.4 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 1,500 | 1% | 93% | 1% | 5% | -8.9 | -1.7 | -3.0 | +13.6 |
| South 4, 6 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 92% | 1% | 7% | +2.7 | -3.2 | -9.7 | +10.2 |
| South 4, 7 honba | Arisa Date ron 1,500 from Sho Shiratori | 1% | 87% | 1% | 11% | -1.2 | -8.5 | -6.2 | +15.9 |
| South 4, 8 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 77% | 2% | 21% | -6.4 | +9.9 | +4.7 | -8.3 |