Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
12/7 Game 2
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+50.5pt). The game was decided in South 2: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +37.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 26% | 25% | 25% | 24% | -3.2 | +21.5 | -19.3 | +1.1 |
| East 2 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 22% | 40% | 13% | 24% | -9.9 | +29.0 | -8.6 | -10.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 67% | 7% | 14% | -5.8 | -11.9 | +22.5 | -4.8 |
| East 3 | Draw | 11% | 58% | 18% | 13% | +3.4 | -6.5 | -0.8 | +3.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Draw | 14% | 50% | 18% | 17% | -1.4 | -4.0 | +7.0 | -1.6 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Draw | 14% | 47% | 23% | 17% | +7.2 | +1.7 | -6.4 | -2.5 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Draw | 18% | 49% | 18% | 16% | +1.5 | -4.1 | -0.3 | +2.9 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Ooi Takaharu ron 1,000 from Nikaido Aki | 19% | 45% | 18% | 19% | +18.7 | -0.3 | -4.8 | -13.6 |
| South 1 | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 6,000 | 32% | 45% | 15% | 9% | +20.5 | -11.5 | -4.2 | -4.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 8,000 | 52% | 29% | 12% | 7% | -12.8 | -6.0 | +27.0 | -8.1 |
| South 2 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 39% | 27% | 29% | 6% | -18.3 | +37.9 | -13.1 | -6.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 8,000 from Ooi Takaharu | 15% | 67% | 15% | 3% | -21.9 | +5.4 | +1.9 | +14.6 |
| South 3 | Draw | 2% | 81% | 12% | 5% | -2.3 | -3.4 | +7.0 | -1.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 3,900 from Sasaki Hisato | 3% | 75% | 17% | 5% | -5.4 | +7.1 | -13.7 | +12.1 |
| South 4 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 1,500 | 1% | 90% | 2% | 7% | -6.3 | -0.8 | -2.0 | +9.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Ooi Takaharu ron 8,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 1% | 89% | 2% | 8% | +40.6 | -3.4 | -8.8 | -28.5 |