Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
12/7 Game 2
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+50.5pt). The game was decided in South 2: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +38.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 25% | 25% | 26% | 24% | -2.7 | +21.0 | -20.5 | +2.2 |
| East 2 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 21% | 40% | 14% | 25% | -8.8 | +29.7 | -9.2 | -11.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 8,000 | 10% | 69% | 7% | 14% | -7.0 | -12.7 | +23.5 | -3.9 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 11% | 57% | 18% | 14% | +4.6 | -5.2 | -1.2 | +1.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 52% | 18% | 17% | -1.6 | -4.6 | +6.3 | -0.1 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 46% | 23% | 17% | +6.9 | +1.4 | -5.1 | -3.2 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 49% | 18% | 16% | +2.3 | -1.2 | -2.1 | +1.1 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Takaharu Ooi ron 1,000 from Aki Nikaido | 18% | 48% | 17% | 17% | +18.0 | -3.7 | -2.4 | -11.8 |
| South 1 | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 6,000 | 29% | 44% | 17% | 10% | +22.8 | -10.6 | -6.8 | -5.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 8,000 | 54% | 29% | 11% | 7% | -13.7 | -6.4 | +28.9 | -8.8 |
| South 2 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 39% | 26% | 30% | 5% | -17.4 | +38.9 | -14.6 | -6.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 15% | 69% | 14% | 2% | -23.3 | +4.4 | +2.8 | +16.1 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 80% | 12% | 5% | -2.1 | -2.3 | +5.7 | -1.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 3,900 from Hisato Sasaki | 3% | 77% | 16% | 4% | -5.1 | +5.7 | -13.2 | +12.6 |
| South 4 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 1,500 | 1% | 90% | 2% | 7% | -7.3 | -0.2 | -1.9 | +9.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Takaharu Ooi ron 8,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 1% | 90% | 2% | 8% | +41.2 | -3.7 | -8.3 | -29.2 |