Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
12/8 Game 1
Namba Shibukawa finished 1st (+62.7pt). The game was decided in East 3: Namba Shibukawa ron 12,000 from Kei Nakabayashi, which moved Namba Shibukawa's expected points by +27.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Daisuke Suzuki 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Daisuke Suzuki Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Namba Shibukawa ron 3,900 from Daisuke Suzuki | 24% | 25% | 25% | 26% | -14.0 | -1.8 | +13.6 | +2.2 |
| East 2 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 7,800 | 15% | 24% | 34% | 27% | -7.1 | +25.6 | -11.1 | -7.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 11% | 43% | 24% | 21% | -1.7 | +5.2 | -1.7 | -1.9 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 5,200 from Kei Nakabayashi | 10% | 47% | 22% | 20% | +0.3 | -3.4 | +21.6 | -18.5 |
| East 3 | Namba Shibukawa ron 12,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 9% | 42% | 38% | 10% | +1.5 | -5.7 | +27.2 | -23.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 28% | 62% | 3% | +5.5 | -0.6 | -2.0 | -2.9 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Daisuke Suzuki ron 6,400 from Kei Nakabayashi | 8% | 28% | 63% | 2% | +14.2 | -1.7 | +0.4 | -12.8 |
| South 1 | Namba Shibukawa ron 1,000 from Rio Tojyo | 12% | 25% | 63% | 0% | -4.5 | -2.3 | +7.0 | -0.2 |
| South 2 | Rio Tojyo ron 2,900 from Daisuke Suzuki | 6% | 20% | 74% | 1% | -8.2 | +9.8 | -1.9 | +0.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 2,000 from Rio Tojyo | 3% | 27% | 69% | 1% | -1.3 | -8.0 | +9.6 | -0.3 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 13% | 86% | 0% | +3.0 | -3.4 | +0.7 | -0.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 7% | 92% | 0% | -2.7 | +6.1 | -4.4 | +1.0 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Daisuke Suzuki tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 14% | 85% | 1% | +19.4 | -16.3 | +4.2 | -7.4 |