Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
12/15 Game 1
Mari Takamiya finished 1st (+57.0pt). The game was decided in East 1: Mari Takamiya ron 18,000 from Saki Kurosawa, which moved Mari Takamiya's expected points by +41.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Yuumi Uotani 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Yuumi Uotani Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Mari Takamiya ron 18,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | +41.3 | -0.8 | -39.2 | -1.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 57% | 19% | 5% | 19% | +3.7 | -5.1 | -2.9 | +4.2 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 12,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 60% | 16% | 4% | 20% | +21.6 | -0.6 | -19.1 | -1.9 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 7,700 from Yuumi Uotani | 77% | 10% | 1% | 12% | +13.4 | +1.6 | +1.2 | -16.2 |
| East 1, 4 honba | Shingo Hori ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya | 89% | 6% | 1% | 5% | -14.2 | +17.6 | -1.9 | -1.4 |
| East 2 | Saki Kurosawa ron 12,000 from Shingo Hori | 78% | 16% | 1% | 6% | +4.2 | -24.6 | +18.7 | +1.8 |
| East 3 | Shingo Hori ron 1,000 from Yuumi Uotani | 87% | 5% | 2% | 6% | +1.6 | +2.7 | -3.2 | -1.1 |
| East 4 | Yuumi Uotani tsumo 12,000 | 89% | 5% | 1% | 5% | -7.8 | -8.8 | -7.0 | +23.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 81% | 4% | 1% | 14% | -1.4 | -3.0 | +1.5 | +2.9 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Yuumi Uotani ron 2,900 from Saki Kurosawa | 79% | 4% | 1% | 16% | -3.1 | -0.6 | -6.6 | +10.3 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Shingo Hori ron 1,000 from Yuumi Uotani | 74% | 4% | 1% | 22% | +3.2 | +3.1 | +0.6 | -6.9 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 80% | 4% | 1% | 15% | +1.5 | +1.8 | +1.8 | -5.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Shingo Hori ron 8,000 from Yuumi Uotani | 82% | 4% | 1% | 13% | +2.1 | +19.3 | -1.6 | -19.8 |
| South 2 | Mari Takamiya ron 2,000 from Shingo Hori | 89% | 7% | 1% | 4% | +6.5 | -5.4 | +0.2 | -1.3 |
| South 3 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 18,000 | 96% | 1% | 1% | 3% | -6.6 | -12.7 | +35.4 | -16.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Shingo Hori ron 3,900 from Saki Kurosawa | 95% | 0% | 2% | 2% | +1.4 | +14.4 | -15.5 | -0.3 |
| South 4 | Saki Kurosawa ron 12,000 from Mari Takamiya | 98% | 0% | 0% | 2% | -10.9 | -14.6 | +42.7 | -17.2 |