Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
12/15 Game 2
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+59.2pt). The game was decided in South 4, 3 honba: Naoki Setokuma ron 5,200 from Kotaro Uchikawa, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +41.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Hiroshi Daigo 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Hiroshi Daigo Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 2,000 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 26% | -7.4 | -3.0 | +10.4 | -0.1 |
| East 2 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 6,400 from Naoki Setokuma | 19% | 22% | 33% | 26% | -16.2 | -2.9 | +21.2 | -2.1 |
| East 3 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 10% | 17% | 50% | 23% | +36.2 | -9.8 | -17.1 | -9.3 |
| East 4 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 33% | 13% | 35% | 19% | +25.6 | -6.2 | -5.2 | -14.2 |
| South 1 | Hiroshi Daigo tsumo 16,000 | 59% | 8% | 24% | 8% | -24.7 | +53.3 | -16.5 | -12.1 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 30% | 50% | 15% | 5% | +6.2 | -4.0 | +0.4 | -2.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 36% | 45% | 15% | 5% | +1.0 | +3.0 | -6.7 | +2.7 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 36% | 49% | 9% | 6% | -2.3 | -1.6 | -2.3 | +6.2 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 5,200 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 34% | 49% | 8% | 9% | +41.0 | -18.1 | -2.1 | -20.8 |