Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
12/18 Game 2
Uchikawa Kotaro finished 1st (+85.5pt). The game was decided in South 3, 3 honba: Uchikawa Kotaro tsumo 8,000, which moved Uchikawa Kotaro's expected points by +35.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Sarukawa Masatoshi 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Uchikawa Kotaro 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change | Sarukawa Masatoshi Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Uchikawa Kotaro Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Shiratori Sho ron 4,800 from Sarukawa Masatoshi | 24% | 26% | 25% | 25% | +13.1 | -14.0 | +1.3 | -0.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Shiratori Sho ron 3,900 from Sarukawa Masatoshi | 34% | 17% | 25% | 24% | +10.2 | -9.4 | -2.0 | +1.3 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Draw | 40% | 12% | 23% | 24% | +2.9 | +4.5 | -2.4 | -5.0 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Sarukawa Masatoshi ron 1,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 44% | 14% | 21% | 22% | -1.2 | +4.8 | -5.8 | +2.2 |
| East 2 | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 8,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 43% | 17% | 18% | 23% | -2.1 | +1.3 | -22.6 | +23.5 |
| East 3 | Draw | 38% | 15% | 8% | 39% | +0.9 | -4.7 | +5.1 | -1.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Shiratori Sho ron 1,000 from Sarukawa Masatoshi | 41% | 11% | 9% | 38% | +8.2 | -4.4 | -2.5 | -1.3 |
| East 4 | Draw | 49% | 9% | 7% | 35% | -1.2 | +6.2 | -3.1 | -1.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro tsumo 8,000 | 48% | 12% | 6% | 34% | -16.3 | -6.9 | -5.9 | +29.0 |
| South 2 | Sarukawa Masatoshi tsumo 12,000 | 22% | 7% | 3% | 68% | -14.7 | +32.9 | -8.3 | -9.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sarukawa Masatoshi tsumo 12,000 | 14% | 27% | 3% | 56% | -11.7 | +37.0 | -6.3 | -19.0 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Draw | 6% | 67% | 2% | 26% | 0.0 | -1.7 | -1.6 | +3.3 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro tsumo 8,000 | 4% | 68% | 2% | 26% | -6.0 | -20.5 | -8.4 | +35.0 |
| South 4 | Draw | 0% | 21% | 0% | 79% | -0.6 | -3.6 | +0.9 | +3.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 4,800 from Shiratori Sho | 1% | 16% | 0% | 84% | -7.0 | -4.5 | +0.1 | +11.3 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 18,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 0% | 4% | 0% | 96% | +0.7 | -2.5 | -19.3 | +21.1 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 3,900 from Uchikawa Kotaro | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0.0 | +0.5 | +5.4 | -5.9 |