Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
12/18 Game 2
Kotaro Uchikawa finished 1st (+85.5pt). The game was decided in South 3, 3 honba: Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 8,000, which moved Kotaro Uchikawa's expected points by +36.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Masatoshi Sarukawa 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Masatoshi Sarukawa Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sho Shiratori ron 4,800 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 24% | 23% | 26% | 26% | +13.3 | -9.4 | -1.1 | -2.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 3,900 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 33% | 18% | 25% | 23% | +9.3 | -8.5 | -1.9 | +1.1 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 40% | 15% | 23% | 23% | +3.8 | +1.0 | -1.2 | -3.5 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Masatoshi Sarukawa ron 1,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 44% | 14% | 22% | 20% | -1.3 | +6.2 | -7.0 | +2.1 |
| East 2 | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 43% | 16% | 18% | 23% | -0.9 | -1.4 | -21.7 | +23.9 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 40% | 13% | 8% | 39% | +0.8 | -4.0 | +5.4 | -2.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 1,000 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 41% | 11% | 10% | 38% | +5.8 | -2.8 | -2.1 | -0.9 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 47% | 10% | 8% | 36% | -0.3 | +7.3 | -5.4 | -1.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 8,000 | 47% | 14% | 5% | 34% | -16.5 | -8.9 | -3.5 | +29.0 |
| South 2 | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 12,000 | 20% | 6% | 5% | 69% | -12.0 | +32.5 | -9.0 | -11.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 12,000 | 17% | 25% | 3% | 55% | -13.7 | +39.3 | -6.4 | -19.3 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 70% | 2% | 24% | +0.9 | -3.3 | -1.8 | +4.2 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 8,000 | 5% | 67% | 2% | 26% | -6.7 | -20.5 | -8.9 | +36.0 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 20% | 0% | 80% | -0.8 | -3.1 | +0.8 | +3.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 4,800 from Sho Shiratori | 0% | 16% | 0% | 84% | -6.7 | -4.8 | +0.1 | +11.4 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 18,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 0% | 3% | 0% | 97% | +0.5 | -2.1 | -19.1 | +20.7 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 3,900 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0.0 | +0.4 | +5.4 | -5.7 |