Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
12/19 Game 1
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+55.7pt). The game was decided in South 2: Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +45.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Ken Sonoda ron 1,000 from Rio Tojyo | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | -4.4 | -0.6 | +1.5 | +3.4 |
| East 2 | Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Ken Sonoda | 23% | 24% | 25% | 28% | -2.4 | +35.6 | -0.8 | -32.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 3,900 from Arisa Date | 18% | 52% | 21% | 9% | +1.7 | -12.5 | +0.2 | +10.7 |
| East 3 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 4,000 | 21% | 41% | 23% | 15% | -1.8 | +2.0 | -9.0 | +8.8 |
| East 4 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 8,000 | 19% | 44% | 18% | 19% | +24.9 | -5.8 | -4.5 | -14.5 |
| South 1 | Kenji Katsumata ron 5,200 from Rio Tojyo | 38% | 38% | 14% | 10% | -19.4 | +2.5 | +17.1 | -0.2 |
| South 2 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 21% | 42% | 25% | 12% | -10.6 | -25.9 | +45.7 | -9.1 |
| South 3 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 4,000 | 8% | 9% | 78% | 5% | +18.0 | -9.5 | -2.9 | -5.6 |
| South 4 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 2,000 | 13% | 4% | 78% | 5% | +2.6 | -3.1 | +9.7 | -9.2 |