Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
12/22 Game 2
Masato Hagiwara finished 1st (+73.3pt). The game was decided in South 1, 3 honba: Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Takaya Matsugase, which moved Masato Hagiwara's expected points by +28.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Daisuke Suzuki 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Daisuke Suzuki Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 24% | 24% | 27% | -12.8 | +21.5 | -5.2 | -3.5 |
| East 2 | Aiko Hinata ron 12,000 from Daisuke Suzuki | 17% | 42% | 20% | 22% | -0.1 | -2.9 | -27.2 | +30.2 |
| East 3 | Aiko Hinata ron 5,200 from Daisuke Suzuki | 14% | 34% | 7% | 44% | +0.4 | -1.2 | -14.9 | +15.7 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 11% | 27% | 3% | 59% | -2.0 | -0.5 | +3.3 | -0.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 3,900 from Daisuke Suzuki | 10% | 28% | 2% | 60% | +11.1 | -1.9 | -7.4 | -1.9 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 3,900 | 15% | 26% | 2% | 57% | +11.5 | -4.3 | -2.6 | -4.6 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 22% | 24% | 2% | 52% | -27.7 | +28.5 | -0.3 | -0.5 |
| South 2 | Masato Hagiwara ron 9,600 from Daisuke Suzuki | 4% | 49% | 1% | 46% | -0.4 | +20.1 | -11.1 | -8.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 6,000 | 1% | 74% | 0% | 25% | -2.4 | +12.3 | -2.6 | -7.3 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 3,900 from Aiko Hinata | 1% | 88% | 0% | 12% | +8.3 | +1.3 | -0.8 | -8.9 |
| South 3 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 93% | 0% | 7% | -6.8 | -6.4 | -7.7 | +20.9 |
| South 4 | Daisuke Suzuki ron 8,000 from Aiko Hinata | 0% | 83% | 0% | 17% | 0.0 | +7.1 | +10.0 | -17.1 |