Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
12/25 Game 1
Arisa Date finished 1st (+77.3pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Arisa Date tsumo 7,800, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +20.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Arisa Date tsumo 3,900 | 25% | 24% | 26% | 26% | +14.6 | -6.0 | -4.9 | -3.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 7,800 | 35% | 20% | 22% | 23% | +20.5 | -7.8 | -5.6 | -7.0 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 5,200 from Go Kobayashi | 52% | 14% | 17% | 16% | -0.8 | +13.4 | -1.2 | -11.4 |
| East 2 | Sayaka Okada ron 8,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 52% | 20% | 16% | 12% | +3.0 | -24.0 | +21.4 | -0.4 |
| East 3 | Go Kobayashi ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada | 54% | 8% | 27% | 11% | +2.6 | +0.2 | -21.7 | +18.9 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 60% | 8% | 13% | 19% | +1.8 | -4.1 | +6.7 | -4.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 2,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 64% | 6% | 15% | 15% | -0.8 | -10.0 | +10.8 | -0.1 |
| South 2 | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Go Kobayashi | 63% | 4% | 19% | 14% | +19.5 | -0.9 | +2.2 | -20.8 |
| South 3 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 2,700 | 87% | 0% | 10% | 3% | +3.5 | -5.7 | -5.0 | +7.1 |
| South 4 | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 96% | 0% | 1% | 3% | +13.5 | -6.0 | +0.4 | -7.9 |