Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
12/25 Game 1
Date Arisa finished 1st (+77.3pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Date Arisa tsumo 7,800, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +22.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Kobayashi Go 1st-place chance | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Kobayashi Go Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Date Arisa tsumo 3,900 | 26% | 25% | 24% | 26% | +11.5 | -6.9 | -2.6 | -2.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 7,800 | 34% | 21% | 22% | 24% | +22.0 | -7.3 | -8.0 | -6.7 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 5,200 from Kobayashi Go | 52% | 15% | 15% | 18% | -0.5 | +11.5 | +3.2 | -14.2 |
| East 2 | Okada Sayaka ron 8,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 51% | 21% | 17% | 12% | +2.9 | -23.5 | +21.8 | -1.2 |
| East 3 | Kobayashi Go ron 8,000 from Okada Sayaka | 54% | 7% | 28% | 10% | +4.2 | -0.7 | -24.2 | +20.7 |
| East 4 | Draw | 62% | 7% | 12% | 19% | 0.0 | -2.2 | +7.0 | -4.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka ron 2,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 63% | 7% | 16% | 15% | -0.1 | -10.3 | +10.2 | +0.3 |
| South 2 | Date Arisa ron 8,000 from Kobayashi Go | 63% | 4% | 18% | 14% | +20.3 | -0.9 | +0.9 | -20.2 |
| South 3 | Kobayashi Go tsumo 2,700 | 89% | 0% | 8% | 3% | +1.4 | -6.2 | -3.1 | +7.8 |
| South 4 | Date Arisa tsumo 12,000 | 94% | 0% | 1% | 4% | +14.7 | -6.1 | +0.9 | -9.5 |