Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
12/25 Game 2
Yu Suzuki finished 1st (+65.8pt). The game was decided in South 1: Yu Suzuki ron 12,000 from Mari Takamiya, which moved Yu Suzuki's expected points by +38.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yu Suzuki 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Yu Suzuki Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +1.4 | -4.5 | -1.9 | +5.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 2,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 27% | 22% | 23% | 28% | -0.4 | +11.9 | -1.7 | -9.8 |
| East 2 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 16,000 | 25% | 31% | 22% | 22% | -13.4 | -23.7 | +42.5 | -5.4 |
| East 3 | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada | 13% | 13% | 58% | 17% | +2.2 | -20.6 | -0.6 | +18.9 |
| East 4 | Yu Suzuki tsumo 5,200 | 14% | 5% | 56% | 25% | +16.3 | -5.2 | 0.0 | -11.1 |
| South 1 | Yu Suzuki ron 12,000 from Mari Takamiya | 22% | 4% | 58% | 16% | +38.1 | +0.1 | -37.8 | -0.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 2,600 from Yu Suzuki | 65% | 4% | 16% | 15% | -7.4 | -1.4 | +12.7 | -3.9 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 58% | 3% | 26% | 14% | +3.3 | +1.6 | -3.5 | -1.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 3,900 | 62% | 4% | 22% | 13% | -2.0 | +10.1 | -3.8 | -4.3 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 61% | 6% | 21% | 12% | -1.1 | +7.1 | -2.6 | -3.3 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Yu Suzuki ron 2,000 from Sayaka Okada | 60% | 8% | 20% | 11% | +16.1 | -15.2 | +0.7 | -1.6 |
| South 3 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 82% | 1% | 12% | 6% | -4.7 | -8.7 | -24.2 | +37.6 |
| South 4 | Yu Suzuki tsumo 8,000 | 78% | 0% | 1% | 22% | +17.4 | -3.5 | -1.3 | -12.6 |