Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2023-24 Semifinals

4/8 Game 2

Matsumoto Yoshihiro finished 1st (+72.3pt). The game was decided in East 1: Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 18,000, which moved Matsumoto Yoshihiro's expected points by +45.0.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 1End● Matsumoto Yoshihiro● Nakabayashi Kei● Suzuki Taro● Shibukawa Namba0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4End● Matsumoto● Nakabayashi● Suzuki● Shibukawa
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultMatsumoto Yoshihiro
1st-place chance
Nakabayashi Kei
1st-place chance
Suzuki Taro
1st-place chance
Shibukawa Namba
1st-place chance
Matsumoto Yoshihiro
Expected pt change
Nakabayashi Kei
Expected pt change
Suzuki Taro
Expected pt change
Shibukawa Namba
Expected pt change
East 1Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 18,00023%26%24%26%+45.0-16.8-12.7-15.4
East 1, 1 honbaMatsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 3,90060%13%13%14%+9.7-2.9-4.2-2.6
East 1, 2 honbaMatsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 12,00071%10%9%10%+22.0-8.4-6.6-7.0
East 1, 3 honbaDraw88%4%4%4%+1.2+6.1-4.7-2.6
East 1, 4 honbaShibukawa Namba tsumo 8,00088%5%3%4%-5.6-6.6-5.8+17.9
East 2Suzuki Taro ron 5,200 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro85%4%3%8%-6.5-3.1+10.3-0.7
East 3Draw83%3%5%9%-2.2+1.1+1.8-0.8
East 3, 1 honbaMatsumoto Yoshihiro ron 2,000 from Nakabayashi Kei80%4%6%10%+9.0-5.2-4.3+0.4
East 4Shibukawa Namba ron 7,700 from Nakabayashi Kei89%2%3%6%-1.1-15.0+0.1+16.0
East 4, 1 honbaShibukawa Namba ron 5,800 from Suzuki Taro86%1%2%11%-0.8+1.8-13.5+12.6
East 4, 2 honbaMatsumoto Yoshihiro ron 2,600 from Suzuki Taro83%1%1%15%+5.6+1.9-4.1-3.4
South 1Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 6,00090%1%1%9%+7.7-3.4-1.6-2.7
South 1, 1 honbaShibukawa Namba ron 3,900 from Nakabayashi Kei94%1%0%5%-0.5-7.1+2.3+5.3
South 2Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 18,00094%0%0%6%-7.6+32.3-16.4-8.3
South 2, 1 honbaMatsumoto Yoshihiro ron 1,300 from Suzuki Taro92%2%0%6%+4.1-2.7-3.1+1.7
South 3Nakabayashi Kei ron 1,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro96%0%0%4%-0.5+2.2-2.7+1.0
South 4Nakabayashi Kei ron 8,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro97%0%0%3%-6.5+7.8+0.6-1.9

All 2023-24 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)