Game · 2023-24 Semifinal Series
4/8 Game 2
Yoshihiro Matsumoto finished 1st (+72.3pt). The game was decided in East 1: Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 18,000, which moved Yoshihiro Matsumoto's expected points by +43.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 18,000 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +43.2 | -15.6 | -14.2 | -13.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 3,900 | 60% | 13% | 13% | 15% | +9.8 | -3.2 | -2.4 | -4.2 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 12,000 | 69% | 9% | 11% | 10% | +22.9 | -5.3 | -10.2 | -7.4 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 87% | 5% | 4% | 4% | +3.3 | +3.0 | -2.6 | -3.6 |
| East 1, 4 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 8,000 | 90% | 4% | 3% | 3% | -8.4 | -5.0 | -5.8 | +19.2 |
| East 2 | Taro Suzuki ron 5,200 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 85% | 5% | 3% | 8% | -5.1 | -5.6 | +11.1 | -0.4 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 83% | 2% | 5% | 9% | -2.3 | +3.3 | +0.6 | -1.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 81% | 4% | 6% | 9% | +8.4 | -5.9 | -3.7 | +1.2 |
| East 4 | Namba Shibukawa ron 7,700 from Kei Nakabayashi | 89% | 2% | 3% | 6% | -0.5 | -14.0 | -0.2 | +14.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 5,800 from Taro Suzuki | 86% | 1% | 2% | 11% | -0.9 | +0.3 | -11.6 | +12.1 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,600 from Taro Suzuki | 84% | 1% | 1% | 15% | +5.8 | +2.8 | -6.3 | -2.3 |
| South 1 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 6,000 | 90% | 1% | 0% | 9% | +7.7 | -2.6 | -2.2 | -2.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 3,900 from Kei Nakabayashi | 94% | 1% | 0% | 5% | -1.2 | -7.3 | +2.6 | +5.8 |
| South 2 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 18,000 | 94% | 0% | 0% | 6% | -6.3 | +31.2 | -16.3 | -8.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 1,300 from Taro Suzuki | 93% | 1% | 0% | 6% | +3.6 | -2.2 | -2.5 | +1.1 |
| South 3 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 1,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 96% | 0% | 0% | 4% | -0.5 | +2.2 | -2.8 | +1.1 |
| South 4 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 8,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 97% | 0% | 0% | 3% | -6.9 | +7.7 | +0.5 | -1.3 |