Game · 2023-24 Semifinals
4/8 Game 2
Matsumoto Yoshihiro finished 1st (+72.3pt). The game was decided in East 1: Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 18,000, which moved Matsumoto Yoshihiro's expected points by +45.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Suzuki Taro 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Suzuki Taro Expected pt change | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 18,000 | 23% | 26% | 24% | 26% | +45.0 | -16.8 | -12.7 | -15.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 3,900 | 60% | 13% | 13% | 14% | +9.7 | -2.9 | -4.2 | -2.6 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 12,000 | 71% | 10% | 9% | 10% | +22.0 | -8.4 | -6.6 | -7.0 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Draw | 88% | 4% | 4% | 4% | +1.2 | +6.1 | -4.7 | -2.6 |
| East 1, 4 honba | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 8,000 | 88% | 5% | 3% | 4% | -5.6 | -6.6 | -5.8 | +17.9 |
| East 2 | Suzuki Taro ron 5,200 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 85% | 4% | 3% | 8% | -6.5 | -3.1 | +10.3 | -0.7 |
| East 3 | Draw | 83% | 3% | 5% | 9% | -2.2 | +1.1 | +1.8 | -0.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 2,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 80% | 4% | 6% | 10% | +9.0 | -5.2 | -4.3 | +0.4 |
| East 4 | Shibukawa Namba ron 7,700 from Nakabayashi Kei | 89% | 2% | 3% | 6% | -1.1 | -15.0 | +0.1 | +16.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Shibukawa Namba ron 5,800 from Suzuki Taro | 86% | 1% | 2% | 11% | -0.8 | +1.8 | -13.5 | +12.6 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 2,600 from Suzuki Taro | 83% | 1% | 1% | 15% | +5.6 | +1.9 | -4.1 | -3.4 |
| South 1 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 6,000 | 90% | 1% | 1% | 9% | +7.7 | -3.4 | -1.6 | -2.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Shibukawa Namba ron 3,900 from Nakabayashi Kei | 94% | 1% | 0% | 5% | -0.5 | -7.1 | +2.3 | +5.3 |
| South 2 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 18,000 | 94% | 0% | 0% | 6% | -7.6 | +32.3 | -16.4 | -8.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 1,300 from Suzuki Taro | 92% | 2% | 0% | 6% | +4.1 | -2.7 | -3.1 | +1.7 |
| South 3 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 1,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 96% | 0% | 0% | 4% | -0.5 | +2.2 | -2.7 | +1.0 |
| South 4 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 8,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 97% | 0% | 0% | 3% | -6.5 | +7.8 | +0.6 | -1.9 |