Game · 2023-24 Semifinals
4/9 Game 1
Sasaki Hisato finished 1st (+54.3pt). The game was decided in South 2: Sasaki Hisato tsumo 5,200, which moved Sasaki Hisato's expected points by +24.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sasaki Hisato ron 2,600 from Matsugase Takaya | 25% | 25% | 24% | 25% | -10.1 | +0.2 | +9.4 | +0.5 |
| East 2 | Hinata Aiko tsumo 1,500 | 17% | 26% | 30% | 27% | -0.1 | +2.7 | -1.4 | -1.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 6,400 | 19% | 27% | 30% | 25% | -4.1 | -10.9 | -3.9 | +18.9 |
| East 3 | Draw | 15% | 18% | 27% | 40% | -3.3 | +7.7 | -3.6 | -0.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 14% | 22% | 25% | 39% | -4.9 | -2.9 | +5.0 | +2.9 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 2,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 12% | 20% | 26% | 41% | -1.7 | -0.9 | +13.2 | -10.6 |
| South 1 | Hinata Aiko ron 3,900 from Matsugase Takaya | 10% | 21% | 39% | 31% | -14.3 | +11.4 | +3.4 | -0.5 |
| South 2 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 5,200 | 4% | 27% | 40% | 29% | -4.6 | -14.9 | +24.3 | -4.8 |
| South 3 | Draw | 1% | 9% | 73% | 18% | +3.3 | +1.0 | +3.4 | -7.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hinata Aiko tsumo 2,700 | 1% | 8% | 77% | 14% | -5.5 | +12.8 | -1.4 | -5.9 |
| South 4 | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 9% | 80% | 11% | +29.9 | -1.2 | +6.2 | -34.9 |