Game · 2023-24 Semifinal Series
4/9 Game 1
Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+54.3pt). The game was decided in South 2: Hisato Sasaki tsumo 5,200, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +22.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,600 from Takaya Matsugase | 26% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -10.9 | +0.8 | +10.1 | +0.1 |
| East 2 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 1,500 | 17% | 24% | 33% | 25% | -2.3 | +2.3 | -1.2 | +1.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 6,400 | 17% | 26% | 31% | 26% | -2.0 | -8.6 | -4.9 | +15.5 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 15% | 20% | 27% | 37% | -2.9 | +5.9 | -4.0 | +1.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 23% | 23% | 40% | -4.9 | -4.7 | +4.2 | +5.4 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 11% | 19% | 25% | 44% | -2.2 | -2.4 | +17.5 | -12.9 |
| South 1 | Aiko Hinata ron 3,900 from Takaya Matsugase | 10% | 18% | 41% | 31% | -14.0 | +12.2 | +1.1 | +0.8 |
| South 2 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 5,200 | 4% | 23% | 42% | 31% | -3.1 | -14.3 | +22.7 | -5.2 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 7% | 72% | 20% | +2.9 | +2.6 | +4.4 | -9.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 2,700 | 1% | 8% | 78% | 13% | -6.2 | +13.7 | -3.3 | -4.2 |
| South 4 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 10% | 78% | 12% | +29.8 | -1.9 | +7.6 | -35.5 |