Game · 2023-24 Semifinal Series
4/9 Game 2
Aki Nikaido finished 1st (+60.6pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000, which moved Aki Nikaido's expected points by +54.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sho Shiratori ron 1,000 from Aki Nikaido | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | -2.0 | -3.7 | +2.9 | +2.8 |
| East 2 | Sho Shiratori ron 2,000 from Mari Takamiya | 24% | 22% | 27% | 27% | -4.9 | -0.7 | -2.2 | +7.8 |
| East 3 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 21% | 21% | 25% | 34% | -8.3 | +26.1 | -11.1 | -6.7 |
| East 4 | Sho Shiratori ron 1,500 from Go Kobayashi | 15% | 41% | 16% | 28% | -2.4 | +2.3 | -7.7 | +7.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 3,900 from Sho Shiratori | 13% | 43% | 12% | 32% | -1.0 | +17.9 | -1.7 | -15.1 |
| South 1 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 1,100 | 11% | 64% | 9% | 17% | -3.6 | +8.9 | -2.3 | -2.9 |
| South 2 | Sho Shiratori ron 12,000 from Aki Nikaido | 4% | 77% | 6% | 12% | -3.4 | -42.2 | -1.4 | +47.0 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 20% | 8% | 67% | +5.9 | -2.4 | -9.8 | +6.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 12% | 2% | 82% | -3.6 | +54.6 | -11.5 | -39.6 |