Game · 2023-24 Semifinal Series
4/11 Game 1
Arisa Date finished 1st (+64.0pt). The game was decided in East 2, 3 honba: Arisa Date tsumo 8,000, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +32.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Maki Asami 1st-place chance | Rumi Nikaido 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Maki Asami Expected pt change | Rumi Nikaido Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 25% | 26% | 25% | -3.5 | +6.8 | -4.9 | +1.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 30% | 23% | 26% | +3.2 | +1.3 | +0.2 | -4.7 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 30% | 23% | 24% | -6.0 | +3.5 | +0.3 | +2.1 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 8,000 | 20% | 33% | 22% | 25% | -8.6 | -13.3 | -10.4 | +32.3 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 21% | 15% | 51% | +1.9 | -1.1 | -0.8 | 0.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 5,200 from Rumi Nikaido | 15% | 20% | 13% | 51% | -1.7 | -0.5 | -14.0 | +16.3 |
| East 4 | Rumi Nikaido ron 2,000 from Arisa Date | 10% | 14% | 6% | 70% | -0.2 | +1.0 | +2.8 | -3.7 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 11% | 15% | 7% | 68% | +8.3 | -3.5 | -2.4 | -2.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 2,000 from Maki Asami | 15% | 14% | 6% | 65% | -3.7 | -4.6 | -0.3 | +8.5 |
| South 2 | Arisa Date ron 2,600 from Sayaka Okada | 7% | 11% | 6% | 77% | -4.8 | -2.7 | -1.1 | +8.6 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 2% | 5% | 90% | -5.1 | +3.1 | +4.0 | -2.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Rumi Nikaido ron 7,700 from Sayaka Okada | 2% | 4% | 5% | 88% | -26.1 | -3.3 | +30.1 | -0.7 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 1,100 | 0% | 2% | 12% | 86% | -3.8 | -1.2 | -3.2 | +8.2 |
| South 4 | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 1,100 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 99% | -1.8 | -4.0 | +6.9 | -1.1 |