Game · 2023-24 Semifinals
4/11 Game 1
Date Arisa finished 1st (+64.0pt). The game was decided in East 2, 3 honba: Date Arisa tsumo 8,000, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +32.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Asami Maki 1st-place chance | Nikaido Rumi 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Asami Maki Expected pt change | Nikaido Rumi Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 26% | 25% | 25% | 24% | -8.0 | +5.5 | -1.8 | +4.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 21% | 28% | 24% | 27% | +5.0 | +4.1 | -5.3 | -3.8 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Draw | 23% | 32% | 20% | 25% | -7.3 | +2.3 | +5.4 | -0.3 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 8,000 | 19% | 33% | 23% | 25% | -7.4 | -14.0 | -10.8 | +32.2 |
| East 3 | Draw | 13% | 19% | 16% | 52% | +0.1 | -0.4 | 0.0 | +0.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Date Arisa ron 5,200 from Nikaido Rumi | 14% | 18% | 15% | 53% | +0.9 | -1.0 | -14.6 | +14.7 |
| East 4 | Nikaido Rumi ron 2,000 from Date Arisa | 11% | 14% | 7% | 67% | +0.6 | +1.6 | +1.2 | -3.5 |
| South 1 | Draw | 11% | 16% | 7% | 65% | +8.6 | -3.9 | -1.0 | -3.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Date Arisa ron 2,000 from Asami Maki | 16% | 15% | 7% | 62% | -5.4 | -5.9 | -0.7 | +11.9 |
| South 2 | Date Arisa ron 2,600 from Okada Sayaka | 7% | 9% | 6% | 78% | -5.3 | -0.9 | -2.5 | +8.7 |
| South 3 | Draw | 2% | 2% | 4% | 92% | -4.9 | +2.4 | +5.1 | -2.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Nikaido Rumi ron 7,700 from Okada Sayaka | 2% | 4% | 6% | 89% | -25.3 | -2.7 | +29.7 | -1.7 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 1,100 | 0% | 3% | 12% | 85% | -3.7 | -1.9 | -2.4 | +8.1 |
| South 4 | Nikaido Rumi tsumo 1,100 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 98% | -2.0 | -3.1 | +5.9 | -0.7 |