Game · 2023-24 Semifinals
4/11 Game 2
Watanabe Futoshi finished 1st (+58.6pt). The game was decided in South 4: Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 8,000, which moved Watanabe Futoshi's expected points by +45.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change | Hori Shingo Expected pt change | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | +5.4 | +1.9 | -3.3 | -4.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Hori Shingo ron 3,900 from Takizawa Kazunori | 27% | 25% | 23% | 24% | -2.1 | -9.7 | +15.3 | -3.5 |
| East 2 | Matsugase Takaya ron 8,000 from Hori Shingo | 26% | 19% | 34% | 21% | +0.4 | -4.4 | -23.7 | +27.8 |
| East 3 | Draw | 25% | 15% | 17% | 43% | -0.3 | -1.3 | +7.2 | -5.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 1,500 | 25% | 15% | 22% | 38% | -3.4 | -1.6 | -5.4 | +10.5 |
| East 4 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 5,200 from Takizawa Kazunori | 22% | 14% | 17% | 48% | +19.5 | -16.7 | -0.1 | -2.8 |
| South 1 | Matsugase Takaya ron 2,600 from Watanabe Futoshi | 36% | 6% | 16% | 42% | -14.0 | -0.8 | -0.8 | +15.6 |
| South 2 | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 2,700 | 19% | 6% | 13% | 63% | +11.1 | -8.9 | -2.4 | +0.2 |
| South 3 | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 2,700 | 25% | 1% | 11% | 63% | -2.2 | +3.3 | -9.3 | +8.2 |
| South 4 | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 8,000 | 18% | 0% | 2% | 80% | +45.2 | -7.4 | +0.3 | -38.2 |