Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2023-24 Semifinals

4/11 Game 2

Watanabe Futoshi finished 1st (+58.6pt). The game was decided in South 4: Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 8,000, which moved Watanabe Futoshi's expected points by +45.2.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 2End● Watanabe Futoshi● Takizawa Kazunori● Hori Shingo● Matsugase Takaya0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4End● Watanabe● Takizawa● Hori● Matsugase
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultWatanabe Futoshi
1st-place chance
Takizawa Kazunori
1st-place chance
Hori Shingo
1st-place chance
Matsugase Takaya
1st-place chance
Watanabe Futoshi
Expected pt change
Takizawa Kazunori
Expected pt change
Hori Shingo
Expected pt change
Matsugase Takaya
Expected pt change
East 1Draw25%24%25%26%+5.4+1.9-3.3-4.0
East 1, 1 honbaHori Shingo ron 3,900 from Takizawa Kazunori27%25%23%24%-2.1-9.7+15.3-3.5
East 2Matsugase Takaya ron 8,000 from Hori Shingo26%19%34%21%+0.4-4.4-23.7+27.8
East 3Draw25%15%17%43%-0.3-1.3+7.2-5.5
East 3, 1 honbaMatsugase Takaya tsumo 1,50025%15%22%38%-3.4-1.6-5.4+10.5
East 4Watanabe Futoshi ron 5,200 from Takizawa Kazunori22%14%17%48%+19.5-16.7-0.1-2.8
South 1Matsugase Takaya ron 2,600 from Watanabe Futoshi36%6%16%42%-14.0-0.8-0.8+15.6
South 2Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 2,70019%6%13%63%+11.1-8.9-2.4+0.2
South 3Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 2,70025%1%11%63%-2.2+3.3-9.3+8.2
South 4Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 8,00018%0%2%80%+45.2-7.4+0.3-38.2

All 2023-24 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)