Game · 2023-24 Semifinal Series
4/11 Game 2
Futoshi Watanabe finished 1st (+58.6pt). The game was decided in South 4: Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 8,000, which moved Futoshi Watanabe's expected points by +44.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 25% | 25% | 26% | +4.5 | +1.3 | -2.7 | -3.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Shingo Hori ron 3,900 from Kazunori Takizawa | 26% | 26% | 25% | 24% | -2.0 | -9.6 | +15.9 | -4.3 |
| East 2 | Takaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Shingo Hori | 25% | 19% | 35% | 20% | +1.7 | -4.2 | -24.6 | +27.1 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 16% | 18% | 41% | +0.3 | -2.2 | +5.0 | -3.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 1,500 | 26% | 14% | 22% | 39% | -3.0 | +0.2 | -6.1 | +8.9 |
| East 4 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 5,200 from Kazunori Takizawa | 24% | 14% | 17% | 46% | +18.4 | -17.4 | -0.1 | -1.0 |
| South 1 | Takaya Matsugase ron 2,600 from Futoshi Watanabe | 36% | 7% | 13% | 44% | -14.0 | -1.3 | -0.1 | +15.5 |
| South 2 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 2,700 | 18% | 6% | 12% | 65% | +10.5 | -9.0 | -2.2 | +0.6 |
| South 3 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 2,700 | 24% | 1% | 10% | 65% | -0.8 | +3.0 | -8.8 | +6.6 |
| South 4 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 8,000 | 18% | 0% | 2% | 80% | +44.5 | -6.9 | +0.5 | -38.2 |