Game · 2023-24 Semifinals
4/12 Game 1
Nikaido Aki finished 1st (+72.8pt). The game was decided in East 4: Nikaido Aki ron 12,000 from Nakabayashi Kei, which moved Nikaido Aki's expected points by +33.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 24% | 26% | 25% | -4.8 | -3.3 | +2.2 | +5.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 20% | 23% | 27% | 29% | -6.7 | +2.8 | +4.8 | -0.9 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 2,000 from Watanabe Futoshi | 17% | 25% | 30% | 28% | +7.9 | -9.2 | +0.4 | +0.8 |
| East 3 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 2,600 from Sasaki Hisato | 20% | 19% | 32% | 29% | +12.9 | +0.2 | -13.9 | +0.8 |
| East 4 | Nikaido Aki ron 12,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 31% | 19% | 20% | 30% | -34.8 | +0.8 | +0.7 | +33.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 2,000 from Watanabe Futoshi | 8% | 16% | 17% | 60% | -1.2 | -8.6 | +9.7 | +0.2 |
| South 1 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 7% | 12% | 21% | 60% | +38.6 | -1.9 | -35.6 | -1.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 8,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 25% | 10% | 6% | 59% | -6.5 | +1.1 | -18.9 | +24.2 |
| South 2 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 8,000 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 87% | -2.9 | -9.1 | -1.6 | +13.6 |
| South 3 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 1,600 from Watanabe Futoshi | 1% | 0% | 1% | 99% | +4.6 | -0.7 | -4.9 | +1.0 |
| South 4 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +9.2 | -1.1 | -3.0 | -5.0 |