Game · 2023-24 Semifinal Series
4/12 Game 1
Aki Nikaido finished 1st (+72.8pt). The game was decided in East 4: Aki Nikaido ron 12,000 from Kei Nakabayashi, which moved Aki Nikaido's expected points by +35.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 26% | 25% | 26% | -2.0 | -3.5 | +2.9 | +2.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 24% | 27% | 28% | -10.9 | +4.4 | +3.9 | +2.7 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 2,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 16% | 26% | 30% | 28% | +11.4 | -11.2 | -0.3 | 0.0 |
| East 3 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 2,600 from Hisato Sasaki | 22% | 17% | 30% | 30% | +10.0 | -0.6 | -10.2 | +0.8 |
| East 4 | Aki Nikaido ron 12,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 30% | 18% | 22% | 30% | -31.6 | -0.4 | -3.1 | +35.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 9% | 13% | 15% | 63% | -1.2 | -9.5 | +10.6 | +0.2 |
| South 1 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 7% | 9% | 20% | 64% | +36.6 | -0.1 | -35.6 | -0.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 25% | 8% | 6% | 61% | -6.8 | +3.1 | -17.8 | +21.5 |
| South 2 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 87% | -3.3 | -9.4 | -2.1 | +14.9 |
| South 3 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 1,600 from Futoshi Watanabe | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | +5.1 | -1.2 | -4.6 | +0.8 |
| South 4 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +9.5 | -0.7 | -3.3 | -5.5 |