Game · 2023-24 Semifinal Series
4/15 Game 1
Takaya Matsugase finished 1st (+56.4pt). The game was decided in East 1: Takaya Matsugase ron 12,000 from Namba Shibukawa, which moved Takaya Matsugase's expected points by +33.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takaya Matsugase ron 12,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 25% | 26% | 25% | 25% | +33.5 | -32.1 | +0.2 | -1.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 3,000 | 50% | 8% | 21% | 20% | +9.5 | -0.8 | -7.4 | -1.3 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 59% | 8% | 15% | 18% | -2.9 | +6.3 | -1.5 | -1.9 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 56% | 10% | 15% | 19% | +5.0 | 0.0 | -3.6 | -1.4 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000 | 63% | 8% | 13% | 16% | -12.0 | +35.5 | -10.6 | -12.8 |
| East 2, 5 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 2,000 | 50% | 27% | 11% | 12% | +0.1 | -7.4 | -7.2 | +14.5 |
| East 3 | Takaya Matsugase ron 2,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 51% | 21% | 9% | 20% | +7.0 | +1.3 | -7.8 | -0.5 |
| East 4 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 2,000 | 58% | 20% | 4% | 18% | +8.5 | -1.8 | -0.8 | -6.0 |
| South 1 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000 | 70% | 16% | 4% | 11% | -21.5 | +35.4 | -6.8 | -7.1 |
| South 2 | Takaharu Ooi ron 12,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 37% | 52% | 3% | 8% | +11.8 | -35.1 | +27.4 | -4.1 |
| South 3 | Akina Mizuhara ron 5,200 from Takaharu Ooi | 65% | 16% | 10% | 9% | +6.2 | +1.2 | -27.0 | +19.5 |
| South 4 | Takaya Matsugase ron 1,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 76% | 10% | 0% | 14% | +11.9 | +3.3 | -2.2 | -13.0 |