Game · 2023-24 Semifinals
4/15 Game 1
Matsugase Takaya finished 1st (+56.4pt). The game was decided in East 1: Matsugase Takaya ron 12,000 from Shibukawa Namba, which moved Matsugase Takaya's expected points by +30.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Matsugase Takaya ron 12,000 from Shibukawa Namba | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | +30.2 | -30.4 | +1.1 | -0.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 3,000 | 48% | 9% | 22% | 22% | +9.5 | -0.3 | -5.8 | -3.4 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Draw | 56% | 8% | 17% | 19% | -1.7 | +3.7 | -2.0 | 0.0 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Draw | 56% | 8% | 17% | 19% | +5.4 | +4.8 | -4.2 | -6.0 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 12,000 | 62% | 10% | 14% | 14% | -11.2 | +33.8 | -14.3 | -8.2 |
| East 2, 5 honba | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 2,000 | 50% | 28% | 10% | 12% | -1.4 | -6.0 | -4.2 | +11.6 |
| East 3 | Matsugase Takaya ron 2,000 from Ooi Takaharu | 50% | 23% | 9% | 18% | +7.8 | -0.4 | -7.5 | +0.1 |
| East 4 | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 2,000 | 58% | 21% | 4% | 17% | +7.4 | -0.9 | -1.9 | -4.6 |
| South 1 | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 12,000 | 68% | 19% | 3% | 11% | -21.9 | +35.2 | -5.6 | -7.7 |
| South 2 | Ooi Takaharu ron 12,000 from Shibukawa Namba | 35% | 55% | 3% | 7% | +15.3 | -35.8 | +24.3 | -3.8 |
| South 3 | Mizuhara Akina ron 5,200 from Ooi Takaharu | 68% | 16% | 8% | 8% | +5.4 | 0.0 | -23.9 | +18.5 |
| South 4 | Matsugase Takaya ron 1,000 from Ooi Takaharu | 78% | 9% | 0% | 13% | +10.5 | +3.9 | -2.9 | -11.6 |