Most differences in results are within chance.They do not justify criticizing players.

Game · 2023-24 Semifinal Series

4/16 Game 1

Kotaro Uchikawa finished 1st (+67.9pt). The game was decided in South 3, 2 honba: Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 12,000, which moved Kotaro Uchikawa's expected points by +30.5.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 1End● Kotaro Uchikawa● Mari Takamiya● Yoshihiro Matsumoto● Maki Asami0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Kotaro● Mari● Yoshihiro● Maki
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultMari Takamiya
1st-place chance
Yoshihiro Matsumoto
1st-place chance
Kotaro Uchikawa
1st-place chance
Maki Asami
1st-place chance
Mari Takamiya
Expected pt change
Yoshihiro Matsumoto
Expected pt change
Kotaro Uchikawa
Expected pt change
Maki Asami
Expected pt change
East 1Kotaro Uchikawa ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya26%25%25%24%-22.9-1.2+22.3+1.8
East 2Kotaro Uchikawa ron 5,200 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto12%23%41%24%+1.6-16.3+14.7+0.1
East 3Kotaro Uchikawa ron 2,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto11%12%56%22%-1.5-2.4+4.0-0.1
East 3, 1 honbaYoshihiro Matsumoto ron 1,300 from Maki Asami10%10%58%22%+0.1+2.4+1.4-3.9
East 4Maki Asami tsumo 6,0009%10%62%19%-4.1-7.5-6.6+18.1
East 4, 1 honbaExhaustive draw8%7%53%32%-3.8+2.9-4.6+5.5
East 4, 2 honbaKotaro Uchikawa tsumo 5,2006%9%47%37%-4.2-4.0+19.4-11.2
South 1Exhaustive draw4%5%71%20%+0.6+5.2-3.2-2.7
South 1, 1 honbaMari Takamiya ron 12,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto5%8%67%20%+35.0-29.6-1.2-4.3
South 1, 2 honbaMari Takamiya ron 18,000 from Maki Asami16%3%65%17%+46.5+2.1-10.0-38.6
South 1, 3 honbaExhaustive draw58%1%39%2%+1.1+2.4-4.6+1.2
South 1, 4 honbaMaki Asami tsumo 8,00061%1%35%3%-7.6-7.7-4.7+20.0
South 2Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 12,000 from Mari Takamiya59%1%33%8%-32.1+20.3+11.6+0.3
South 2, 1 honbaExhaustive draw23%5%60%12%+9.9-5.2-1.5-3.2
South 3, 2 honbaKotaro Uchikawa tsumo 12,00033%2%56%9%-16.4-6.6+30.5-7.5
South 3, 3 honbaMari Takamiya tsumo 2,0003%0%94%2%+4.9-2.9-1.3-0.7
South 4Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,600 from Maki Asami1%0%97%2%+1.7+20.3+1.9-23.9

All 2023-24 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)