Game · 2023-24 Semifinal Series
4/16 Game 1
Kotaro Uchikawa finished 1st (+67.9pt). The game was decided in South 3, 2 honba: Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 12,000, which moved Kotaro Uchikawa's expected points by +30.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Maki Asami 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Maki Asami Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya | 26% | 25% | 25% | 24% | -22.9 | -1.2 | +22.3 | +1.8 |
| East 2 | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 5,200 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 12% | 23% | 41% | 24% | +1.6 | -16.3 | +14.7 | +0.1 |
| East 3 | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 2,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 11% | 12% | 56% | 22% | -1.5 | -2.4 | +4.0 | -0.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 1,300 from Maki Asami | 10% | 10% | 58% | 22% | +0.1 | +2.4 | +1.4 | -3.9 |
| East 4 | Maki Asami tsumo 6,000 | 9% | 10% | 62% | 19% | -4.1 | -7.5 | -6.6 | +18.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 8% | 7% | 53% | 32% | -3.8 | +2.9 | -4.6 | +5.5 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 5,200 | 6% | 9% | 47% | 37% | -4.2 | -4.0 | +19.4 | -11.2 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 5% | 71% | 20% | +0.6 | +5.2 | -3.2 | -2.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 12,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 5% | 8% | 67% | 20% | +35.0 | -29.6 | -1.2 | -4.3 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 18,000 from Maki Asami | 16% | 3% | 65% | 17% | +46.5 | +2.1 | -10.0 | -38.6 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 58% | 1% | 39% | 2% | +1.1 | +2.4 | -4.6 | +1.2 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Maki Asami tsumo 8,000 | 61% | 1% | 35% | 3% | -7.6 | -7.7 | -4.7 | +20.0 |
| South 2 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 12,000 from Mari Takamiya | 59% | 1% | 33% | 8% | -32.1 | +20.3 | +11.6 | +0.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 5% | 60% | 12% | +9.9 | -5.2 | -1.5 | -3.2 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 12,000 | 33% | 2% | 56% | 9% | -16.4 | -6.6 | +30.5 | -7.5 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 2,000 | 3% | 0% | 94% | 2% | +4.9 | -2.9 | -1.3 | -0.7 |
| South 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,600 from Maki Asami | 1% | 0% | 97% | 2% | +1.7 | +20.3 | +1.9 | -23.9 |