Game · 2023-24 Semifinals
4/16 Game 2
Sonoda Ken finished 1st (+92.1pt). The game was decided in East 3, 2 honba: Sonoda Ken tsumo 12,000, which moved Sonoda Ken's expected points by +27.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 26% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -3.2 | -2.8 | +5.5 | +0.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 1,000 from Hinata Aiko | 22% | 23% | 29% | 26% | -1.4 | -1.1 | +5.7 | -3.1 |
| East 3 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 6,000 | 22% | 22% | 32% | 24% | -5.5 | -8.8 | +21.6 | -7.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Draw | 16% | 14% | 53% | 17% | -2.7 | -1.0 | +6.9 | -3.2 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Sonoda Ken tsumo 12,000 | 13% | 13% | 60% | 14% | -8.6 | -11.2 | +27.1 | -7.3 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Draw | 5% | 4% | 85% | 6% | 0.0 | -3.2 | +4.5 | -1.3 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 12,000 from Hinata Aiko | 5% | 2% | 89% | 4% | +2.6 | +5.9 | +17.9 | -26.4 |
| East 3, 5 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 12,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 1% | 1% | 97% | 1% | +3.7 | -24.2 | +14.0 | +6.5 |
| East 3, 6 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 1,500 | 1% | 0% | 99% | 1% | -2.0 | +7.5 | -1.6 | -3.9 |
| East 4 | Hori Shingo tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 0% | 99% | 0% | +20.6 | -4.9 | -3.1 | -12.6 |
| South 1 | Hori Shingo tsumo 18,000 | 1% | 0% | 99% | 0% | +23.9 | -7.6 | -8.8 | -7.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Draw | 7% | 0% | 93% | 0% | -3.9 | +2.8 | +1.8 | -0.7 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 18,000 | 3% | 0% | 97% | 0% | -8.1 | +27.1 | -6.9 | -12.0 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Sonoda Ken tsumo 1,100 | 3% | 1% | 96% | 0% | +0.8 | -3.4 | +3.6 | -1.0 |
| South 3 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 0% | 99% | 0% | -3.6 | +10.0 | -5.0 | -1.5 |
| South 4 | Sonoda Ken ron 8,000 from Hinata Aiko | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | +1.9 | -1.2 | +8.9 | -9.6 |