Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2023-24 Semifinals

4/16 Game 2

Sonoda Ken finished 1st (+92.1pt). The game was decided in East 3, 2 honba: Sonoda Ken tsumo 12,000, which moved Sonoda Ken's expected points by +27.1.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 1End● Sonoda Ken● Hori Shingo● Sasaki Hisato● Hinata Aiko0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3End● Sonoda● Hori● Sasaki● Hinata
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultHori Shingo
1st-place chance
Sasaki Hisato
1st-place chance
Sonoda Ken
1st-place chance
Hinata Aiko
1st-place chance
Hori Shingo
Expected pt change
Sasaki Hisato
Expected pt change
Sonoda Ken
Expected pt change
Hinata Aiko
Expected pt change
East 1Draw26%25%25%25%-3.2-2.8+5.5+0.5
East 2, 1 honbaSonoda Ken ron 1,000 from Hinata Aiko22%23%29%26%-1.4-1.1+5.7-3.1
East 3Sonoda Ken tsumo 6,00022%22%32%24%-5.5-8.8+21.6-7.3
East 3, 1 honbaDraw16%14%53%17%-2.7-1.0+6.9-3.2
East 3, 2 honbaSonoda Ken tsumo 12,00013%13%60%14%-8.6-11.2+27.1-7.3
East 3, 3 honbaDraw5%4%85%6%0.0-3.2+4.5-1.3
East 3, 4 honbaSonoda Ken ron 12,000 from Hinata Aiko5%2%89%4%+2.6+5.9+17.9-26.4
East 3, 5 honbaSonoda Ken ron 12,000 from Sasaki Hisato1%1%97%1%+3.7-24.2+14.0+6.5
East 3, 6 honbaSasaki Hisato tsumo 1,5001%0%99%1%-2.0+7.5-1.6-3.9
East 4Hori Shingo tsumo 12,0001%0%99%0%+20.6-4.9-3.1-12.6
South 1Hori Shingo tsumo 18,0001%0%99%0%+23.9-7.6-8.8-7.5
South 1, 1 honbaDraw7%0%93%0%-3.9+2.8+1.8-0.7
South 2, 2 honbaSasaki Hisato tsumo 18,0003%0%97%0%-8.1+27.1-6.9-12.0
South 2, 3 honbaSonoda Ken tsumo 1,1003%1%96%0%+0.8-3.4+3.6-1.0
South 3Sasaki Hisato tsumo 8,0001%0%99%0%-3.6+10.0-5.0-1.5
South 4Sonoda Ken ron 8,000 from Hinata Aiko0%0%100%0%+1.9-1.2+8.9-9.6

All 2023-24 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)