Game · 2023-24 Semifinal Series
4/16 Game 2
Ken Sonoda finished 1st (+92.1pt). The game was decided in East 3, 2 honba: Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000, which moved Ken Sonoda's expected points by +28.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 25% | 27% | 24% | -4.4 | -0.1 | +3.2 | +1.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 1,000 from Aiko Hinata | 20% | 26% | 29% | 26% | +2.0 | -4.3 | +7.1 | -4.9 |
| East 3 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 6,000 | 22% | 21% | 34% | 23% | -6.0 | -9.3 | +19.8 | -4.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 15% | 51% | 18% | -1.5 | -2.1 | +6.3 | -2.6 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000 | 15% | 12% | 57% | 16% | -7.8 | -10.0 | +28.7 | -10.9 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 4% | 85% | 6% | -3.5 | -1.5 | +4.5 | +0.6 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 12,000 from Aiko Hinata | 3% | 3% | 89% | 5% | +4.4 | +3.7 | +18.1 | -26.2 |
| East 3, 5 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 12,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 1% | 1% | 97% | 1% | +3.0 | -22.1 | +14.5 | +4.5 |
| East 3, 6 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 1,500 | 1% | 0% | 99% | 0% | -1.2 | +6.3 | -1.9 | -3.3 |
| East 4 | Shingo Hori tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 99% | 0% | +20.9 | -5.8 | -3.2 | -12.0 |
| South 1 | Shingo Hori tsumo 18,000 | 1% | 0% | 99% | 0% | +22.2 | -6.7 | -8.7 | -6.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 0% | 93% | 0% | -2.9 | +4.3 | +0.9 | -2.3 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 18,000 | 4% | 0% | 96% | 0% | -8.7 | +24.6 | -5.6 | -10.2 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 1,100 | 2% | 1% | 98% | 0% | +0.4 | -2.4 | +3.1 | -1.1 |
| South 3 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 0% | 99% | 0% | -2.9 | +9.5 | -4.8 | -1.8 |
| South 4 | Ken Sonoda ron 8,000 from Aiko Hinata | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | +1.8 | -0.9 | +8.6 | -9.6 |