Game · 2023-24 Semifinal Series
4/19 Game 1
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+59.4pt). The game was decided in East 3, 3 honba: Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 7,800, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +25.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Taro Suzuki ron 12,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 23% | 26% | 25% | 26% | +36.4 | -2.5 | -2.0 | -32.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 51% | 20% | 21% | 8% | -4.5 | -3.3 | +9.2 | -1.4 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 47% | 19% | 27% | 8% | -2.4 | -3.2 | -0.2 | +5.7 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 7,800 | 45% | 16% | 28% | 11% | -9.5 | -7.6 | +25.1 | -8.1 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 8,000 | 33% | 11% | 49% | 7% | -3.5 | -8.2 | -9.5 | +21.2 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 33% | 10% | 42% | 16% | +1.8 | +0.5 | +2.4 | -4.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 3,900 from Kazunori Takizawa | 35% | 10% | 45% | 11% | -1.6 | +8.9 | +4.5 | -11.8 |
| South 2 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 31% | 12% | 49% | 8% | -8.0 | -12.5 | +25.1 | -4.6 |
| South 3 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 1% | 84% | 4% | +24.7 | -1.8 | -15.1 | -7.7 |
| South 4 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 7,700 from Sho Shiratori | 39% | 0% | 59% | 2% | -0.7 | -21.9 | -1.3 | +23.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 1,300 from Kazunori Takizawa | 39% | 0% | 57% | 5% | -14.2 | -1.5 | +20.5 | -4.8 |