Game · 2023-24 Semifinals
4/19 Game 2
Takamiya Mari finished 1st (+52.3pt). The game was decided in South 4: Takamiya Mari ron 2,600 from Kobayashi Go, which moved Takamiya Mari's expected points by +42.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Kobayashi Go 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Kobayashi Go Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | +2.2 | -7.4 | +2.3 | +2.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 5,200 from Watanabe Futoshi | 27% | 21% | 25% | 26% | -2.7 | -0.2 | +17.0 | -14.1 |
| East 2 | Kobayashi Go ron 2,900 from Takamiya Mari | 23% | 19% | 40% | 18% | -7.7 | +10.3 | -1.7 | -0.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 1,100 | 18% | 26% | 38% | 18% | -0.4 | -5.4 | +0.7 | +5.1 |
| East 3 | Kobayashi Go ron 6,400 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 18% | 22% | 39% | 21% | +0.1 | +21.7 | -19.1 | -2.7 |
| East 4 | Kobayashi Go ron 3,900 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 18% | 38% | 24% | 19% | +1.2 | +14.4 | -13.0 | -2.6 |
| South 1 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 6,000 | 18% | 55% | 14% | 14% | +20.8 | -7.2 | -7.9 | -5.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Draw | 33% | 44% | 10% | 12% | -2.9 | +1.6 | +0.7 | +0.6 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Draw | 30% | 46% | 12% | 12% | +7.5 | -3.4 | -2.2 | -1.9 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Watanabe Futoshi ron 5,200 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 36% | 42% | 9% | 12% | -2.7 | -2.1 | -17.5 | +22.3 |
| South 2 | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 4,000 | 33% | 39% | 5% | 24% | -2.1 | -8.0 | -1.8 | +12.0 |
| South 3 | Kobayashi Go ron 1,000 from Takamiya Mari | 32% | 30% | 4% | 33% | -4.5 | +13.2 | -7.3 | -1.5 |
| South 4 | Takamiya Mari ron 2,600 from Kobayashi Go | 24% | 50% | 0% | 26% | +42.9 | -28.1 | 0.0 | -14.7 |