Game · 2023-24 Semifinal Series
4/19 Game 2
Mari Takamiya finished 1st (+52.3pt). The game was decided in South 4: Mari Takamiya ron 2,600 from Go Kobayashi, which moved Mari Takamiya's expected points by +44.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +0.6 | -6.7 | +4.0 | +2.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 5,200 from Futoshi Watanabe | 26% | 20% | 28% | 27% | +0.2 | +0.1 | +14.2 | -14.4 |
| East 2 | Go Kobayashi ron 2,900 from Mari Takamiya | 25% | 20% | 37% | 17% | -7.5 | +7.1 | -0.9 | +1.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 1,100 | 20% | 25% | 36% | 19% | -3.0 | -2.4 | +1.4 | +4.0 |
| East 3 | Go Kobayashi ron 6,400 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 19% | 23% | 38% | 20% | -0.2 | +21.2 | -21.8 | +0.8 |
| East 4 | Go Kobayashi ron 3,900 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 18% | 39% | 21% | 23% | +0.5 | +14.7 | -9.4 | -5.8 |
| South 1 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 6,000 | 16% | 55% | 14% | 15% | +23.9 | -6.8 | -9.6 | -7.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 34% | 46% | 9% | 11% | -3.4 | +1.5 | +1.3 | +0.6 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 31% | 47% | 10% | 12% | +5.5 | -4.3 | -1.5 | +0.2 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 5,200 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 36% | 43% | 10% | 12% | -1.5 | -1.5 | -16.9 | +19.9 |
| South 2 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 4,000 | 33% | 40% | 5% | 22% | -2.6 | -6.5 | -3.8 | +12.9 |
| South 3 | Go Kobayashi ron 1,000 from Mari Takamiya | 31% | 32% | 5% | 32% | -5.6 | +13.0 | -6.5 | -0.9 |
| South 4 | Mari Takamiya ron 2,600 from Go Kobayashi | 23% | 52% | 0% | 25% | +44.2 | -29.7 | +0.3 | -14.8 |