Game · 2023-24 Semifinals
4/22 Game 2
Nakabayashi Kei finished 1st (+78.8pt). The game was decided in South 1, 2 honba: Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000, which moved Nakabayashi Kei's expected points by +42.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Hori Shingo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 4,000 | 26% | 24% | 24% | 26% | -7.6 | +9.4 | -1.0 | -0.7 |
| East 2 | Draw | 19% | 31% | 25% | 26% | +2.0 | +4.5 | -3.3 | -3.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Hori Shingo ron 5,200 from Nakabayashi Kei | 21% | 34% | 22% | 23% | -15.6 | -2.5 | -0.3 | +18.5 |
| East 3 | Draw | 13% | 31% | 20% | 36% | -1.3 | +2.3 | -3.2 | +2.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Hori Shingo ron 2,900 from Nikaido Aki | 11% | 34% | 18% | 38% | +0.9 | +0.8 | -11.0 | +9.3 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 8,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 11% | 32% | 11% | 46% | -22.3 | -2.0 | +26.7 | -2.4 |
| South 1 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 3,000 | 4% | 29% | 25% | 42% | +5.0 | -4.0 | +1.2 | -2.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 3,900 | 6% | 27% | 27% | 40% | +12.9 | -5.1 | -4.1 | -3.7 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000 | 10% | 25% | 26% | 38% | +42.5 | -11.5 | -15.5 | -15.5 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Draw | 38% | 19% | 17% | 26% | +4.2 | +1.3 | -1.1 | -4.3 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 5,800 from Hori Shingo | 42% | 19% | 17% | 23% | +24.7 | -2.7 | -1.3 | -20.8 |
| South 1, 5 honba | Draw | 70% | 11% | 11% | 8% | +2.9 | -2.3 | -3.6 | +3.0 |
| South 1, 6 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 3,900 | 73% | 11% | 8% | 9% | +10.9 | -5.0 | -3.8 | -2.1 |
| South 1, 7 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 18,000 | 83% | 6% | 6% | 6% | +26.2 | -8.7 | -7.8 | -9.7 |
| South 1, 8 honba | Draw | 98% | 1% | 1% | 1% | +3.4 | -1.3 | -2.4 | +0.2 |
| South 1, 9 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 8,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 98% | 1% | 1% | 1% | -14.0 | -5.4 | +24.6 | -5.2 |
| South 2 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 1,000 from Takizawa Kazunori | 95% | 1% | 3% | 1% | +2.5 | -3.7 | +2.7 | -1.5 |
| South 3 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 3,900 from Nikaido Aki | 97% | 0% | 2% | 1% | +5.0 | +3.5 | -5.8 | -2.7 |
| South 4 | Draw | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | +0.2 | -11.4 | +1.8 | +9.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Hori Shingo tsumo 3,000 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -1.4 | -7.6 | -2.5 | +11.5 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Hori Shingo tsumo 18,000 | 99% | 0% | 0% | 1% | -8.2 | -7.9 | -20.0 | +36.1 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 1,000 from Hori Shingo | 94% | 0% | 0% | 6% | +5.2 | -1.0 | +1.6 | -5.8 |