Game · 2023-24 Semifinal Series
4/22 Game 2
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+78.8pt). The game was decided in South 1, 2 honba: Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +42.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 4,000 | 25% | 25% | 26% | 25% | -6.4 | +11.6 | -4.1 | -1.0 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 34% | 23% | 23% | +0.6 | +2.6 | -3.2 | -0.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Shingo Hori ron 5,200 from Kei Nakabayashi | 19% | 36% | 20% | 25% | -13.6 | -5.7 | +0.8 | +18.5 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 30% | 20% | 37% | +0.3 | +1.5 | -2.6 | +0.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Shingo Hori ron 2,900 from Aki Nikaido | 13% | 31% | 19% | 38% | +0.4 | +0.7 | -10.0 | +9.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 13% | 31% | 12% | 44% | -24.4 | +0.1 | +26.6 | -2.3 |
| South 1 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 3,000 | 4% | 29% | 26% | 41% | +5.7 | -1.4 | -1.2 | -3.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 3,900 | 6% | 28% | 27% | 39% | +12.5 | -6.8 | -4.0 | -1.8 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 10% | 26% | 24% | 40% | +42.5 | -14.1 | -12.0 | -16.4 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 38% | 17% | 19% | 26% | +2.7 | +4.6 | -1.8 | -5.5 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 5,800 from Shingo Hori | 41% | 20% | 17% | 22% | +24.1 | -1.3 | -2.9 | -19.9 |
| South 1, 5 honba | Exhaustive draw | 67% | 15% | 11% | 8% | +3.9 | -4.5 | -3.5 | +4.1 |
| South 1, 6 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 3,900 | 71% | 10% | 9% | 10% | +11.2 | -4.7 | -4.1 | -2.3 |
| South 1, 7 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 18,000 | 83% | 6% | 5% | 7% | +26.8 | -9.1 | -8.2 | -9.6 |
| South 1, 8 honba | Exhaustive draw | 98% | 1% | 1% | 1% | +3.7 | -1.9 | -0.6 | -1.1 |
| South 1, 9 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 99% | 0% | 1% | 0% | -13.9 | -5.3 | +23.7 | -4.5 |
| South 2 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 1,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 95% | 1% | 2% | 1% | +2.2 | -3.2 | +2.3 | -1.3 |
| South 3 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 3,900 from Aki Nikaido | 98% | 0% | 2% | 1% | +5.3 | +3.0 | -5.8 | -2.5 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 | -11.8 | +2.4 | +9.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Shingo Hori tsumo 3,000 | 99% | 0% | 0% | 1% | -1.7 | -6.8 | -2.6 | +11.2 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Shingo Hori tsumo 18,000 | 99% | 0% | 0% | 1% | -8.1 | -8.2 | -20.1 | +36.4 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 1,000 from Shingo Hori | 94% | 0% | 0% | 6% | +5.4 | -0.8 | +1.5 | -6.1 |