Game · 2023-24 Semifinal Series
4/23 Game 2
Rumi Nikaido finished 1st (+53.1pt). The game was decided in East 2: Rumi Nikaido ron 12,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa, which moved Rumi Nikaido's expected points by +29.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Rumi Nikaido 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Rumi Nikaido Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 24% | 24% | 26% | -15.0 | +20.8 | -2.9 | -3.0 |
| East 2 | Rumi Nikaido ron 12,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 15% | 41% | 20% | 24% | +1.3 | +29.0 | -27.1 | -3.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 6,000 | 12% | 67% | 6% | 16% | -4.2 | +11.1 | -2.4 | -4.4 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 2,600 from Rumi Nikaido | 8% | 78% | 4% | 10% | 0.0 | -5.5 | -3.2 | +8.7 |
| East 3 | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 5,800 from Kei Nakabayashi | 8% | 74% | 4% | 15% | -13.8 | +0.8 | +14.5 | -1.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 6,000 | 4% | 75% | 7% | 14% | -3.9 | -4.3 | +13.4 | -5.2 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 70% | 13% | 13% | -8.4 | -8.1 | -16.9 | +33.4 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 57% | 5% | 35% | +3.2 | -3.5 | -3.8 | +4.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 53% | 4% | 40% | +2.5 | -4.8 | -2.7 | +5.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 3,900 from Ken Sonoda | 4% | 46% | 4% | 46% | +11.6 | +6.3 | -1.1 | -16.8 |
| South 1 | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 5,200 from Rumi Nikaido | 6% | 60% | 5% | 30% | -4.8 | -10.0 | +7.5 | +7.2 |
| South 2 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 1,100 | 4% | 49% | 6% | 41% | -1.6 | -2.2 | +1.0 | +2.8 |
| South 3 | Rumi Nikaido ron 1,000 from Ken Sonoda | 2% | 47% | 7% | 43% | -3.8 | +13.6 | -5.3 | -4.5 |
| South 4 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 71% | 0% | 28% | +19.1 | +10.1 | -13.6 | -15.5 |