Game · 2023-24 Semifinals
4/25 Game 2
Date Arisa finished 1st (+55.6pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Date Arisa tsumo 12,000, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +38.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Kobayashi Go 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Kobayashi Go Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 26% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +6.0 | -1.1 | -4.6 | -0.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 12,000 | 30% | 23% | 22% | 25% | -18.2 | -8.3 | +38.2 | -11.7 |
| East 2 | Draw | 15% | 17% | 53% | 16% | -0.4 | +4.9 | -5.0 | +0.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 8,000 | 16% | 20% | 48% | 17% | +26.2 | -13.6 | -3.1 | -9.4 |
| East 3 | Draw | 33% | 12% | 43% | 13% | -2.5 | -2.4 | -3.2 | +8.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 31% | 11% | 41% | 17% | -0.7 | +7.5 | -0.2 | -6.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Date Arisa ron 2,600 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 31% | 15% | 41% | 13% | -14.4 | -4.9 | +20.5 | -1.2 |
| South 2 | Kobayashi Go ron 8,000 from Shibukawa Namba | 13% | 10% | 68% | 10% | +0.4 | -25.5 | +2.7 | +22.4 |
| South 3 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 1% | 72% | 17% | +38.7 | -5.5 | -24.7 | -8.5 |
| South 4 | Date Arisa ron 3,200 from Shibukawa Namba | 58% | 0% | 29% | 12% | -21.6 | -3.7 | +34.7 | -9.4 |