Game · 2023-24 Semifinal Series
4/25 Game 2
Arisa Date finished 1st (+55.6pt). The game was decided in South 4: Arisa Date ron 3,200 from Namba Shibukawa, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +34.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 25% | 26% | 24% | +7.8 | -3.5 | -2.2 | -2.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 30% | 23% | 24% | 23% | -19.0 | -6.6 | +33.2 | -7.6 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 15% | 17% | 51% | 17% | -1.1 | +4.8 | -0.7 | -3.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000 | 15% | 21% | 49% | 16% | +26.1 | -14.2 | -6.8 | -5.1 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 33% | 12% | 42% | 13% | -2.4 | -1.4 | -1.0 | +4.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 30% | 11% | 42% | 16% | -0.7 | +5.9 | +0.9 | -6.1 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Arisa Date ron 2,600 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 31% | 14% | 44% | 12% | -14.0 | -1.5 | +17.7 | -2.2 |
| South 2 | Go Kobayashi ron 8,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 14% | 11% | 66% | 8% | 0.0 | -28.6 | +3.9 | +24.7 |
| South 3 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 1% | 72% | 17% | +37.9 | -4.6 | -24.8 | -8.5 |
| South 4 | Arisa Date ron 3,200 from Namba Shibukawa | 57% | 0% | 29% | 14% | -20.7 | -4.0 | +34.9 | -10.2 |