Game · 2023-24 Semifinals
4/26 Game 1
Watanabe Futoshi finished 1st (+80.3pt). The game was decided in South 3, 5 honba: Watanabe Futoshi ron 18,000 from Nikaido Rumi, which moved Watanabe Futoshi's expected points by +23.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Nikaido Rumi 1st-place chance | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change | Nikaido Rumi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 8,000 from Nikaido Rumi | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -1.7 | -0.3 | +21.2 | -19.2 |
| East 2 | Nikaido Rumi tsumo 12,000 | 22% | 23% | 40% | 16% | -9.5 | -14.5 | -6.6 | +30.6 |
| East 3 | Nikaido Rumi ron 2,000 from Ooi Takaharu | 16% | 15% | 35% | 34% | +0.2 | -6.0 | -3.1 | +8.9 |
| East 4 | Draw | 17% | 11% | 31% | 41% | +0.6 | -5.3 | +8.1 | -3.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 8,000 | 17% | 9% | 37% | 37% | -18.6 | +26.2 | -4.8 | -2.8 |
| South 2 | Ooi Takaharu ron 1,500 from Date Arisa | 7% | 22% | 34% | 37% | -5.8 | +7.4 | -0.2 | -1.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 4% | 27% | 34% | 34% | +1.6 | -4.3 | -4.4 | +7.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Draw | 6% | 23% | 28% | 43% | -0.5 | -6.6 | +14.2 | -7.1 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Watanabe Futoshi ron 3,900 from Date Arisa | 5% | 17% | 45% | 34% | -13.8 | -2.4 | +21.4 | -5.2 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 6,000 | 1% | 8% | 71% | 20% | -3.1 | -4.8 | +15.5 | -7.6 |
| South 3, 5 honba | Watanabe Futoshi ron 18,000 from Nikaido Rumi | 0% | 2% | 89% | 9% | +10.2 | +9.4 | +23.2 | -42.8 |
| South 3, 6 honba | Nikaido Rumi tsumo 1,100 | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | -8.1 | -1.3 | -1.6 | +11.0 |
| South 4 | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -8.7 | +16.6 | -2.3 | -5.6 |