Game · 2023-24 Semifinal Series
4/26 Game 1
Futoshi Watanabe finished 1st (+80.3pt). The game was decided in South 3, 5 honba: Futoshi Watanabe ron 18,000 from Rumi Nikaido, which moved Futoshi Watanabe's expected points by +23.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Rumi Nikaido 1st-place chance | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Rumi Nikaido Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 8,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 26% | 24% | 24% | 27% | -2.1 | +1.6 | +20.6 | -20.1 |
| East 2 | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 22% | 24% | 39% | 15% | -8.1 | -18.3 | -4.5 | +30.9 |
| East 3 | Rumi Nikaido ron 2,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 18% | 13% | 36% | 34% | -2.5 | -5.5 | -1.1 | +9.2 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 10% | 32% | 42% | +2.3 | -3.1 | +6.2 | -5.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 8,000 | 17% | 10% | 39% | 35% | -19.3 | +26.3 | -3.4 | -3.5 |
| South 2 | Takaharu Ooi ron 1,500 from Arisa Date | 7% | 23% | 36% | 34% | -5.6 | +4.8 | -0.7 | +1.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 26% | 34% | 35% | +3.5 | -3.9 | -4.5 | +5.0 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 22% | 30% | 41% | -3.0 | -4.6 | +14.2 | -6.6 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 3,900 from Arisa Date | 5% | 19% | 45% | 31% | -13.2 | -2.4 | +18.5 | -2.9 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 10% | 68% | 22% | -2.5 | -6.8 | +17.4 | -8.1 |
| South 3, 5 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 18,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 0% | 2% | 89% | 9% | +10.4 | +10.3 | +23.5 | -44.3 |
| South 3, 6 honba | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 1,100 | 0% | 0% | 99% | 0% | -7.5 | -1.7 | -2.0 | +11.2 |
| South 4 | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -9.5 | +16.9 | -2.3 | -5.1 |