Game · 2023-24 Semifinal Series
4/29 Game 1
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+55.1pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Kenji Katsumata ron 3,900 from Namba Shibukawa, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +44.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Namba Shibukawa ron 2,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 25% | 26% | 23% | 27% | -3.1 | -6.8 | +9.9 | 0.0 |
| East 2 | Kenji Katsumata ron 12,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 22% | 21% | 30% | 27% | -28.0 | +30.2 | -2.0 | -0.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 3,900 from Namba Shibukawa | 8% | 42% | 26% | 24% | +0.1 | -2.4 | -11.2 | +13.5 |
| East 3 | Namba Shibukawa ron 2,900 from Takaharu Ooi | 8% | 39% | 19% | 34% | -7.6 | +0.1 | +11.1 | -3.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Takaharu Ooi ron 5,200 from Namba Shibukawa | 6% | 39% | 25% | 31% | +12.5 | +3.1 | -17.5 | +1.9 |
| East 4 | Takaharu Ooi ron 3,900 from Kenji Katsumata | 10% | 43% | 14% | 33% | +8.6 | -7.9 | -0.1 | -0.5 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 37% | 16% | 34% | -5.7 | +9.8 | -4.0 | -0.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 5,200 from Takaharu Ooi | 8% | 46% | 13% | 32% | -19.7 | -0.8 | +21.6 | -1.1 |
| South 3 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 6,000 | 2% | 47% | 22% | 29% | -5.2 | -13.9 | +29.0 | -9.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 25% | 54% | 20% | -0.5 | -1.1 | +0.8 | +0.8 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 3,900 from Namba Shibukawa | 0% | 21% | 59% | 20% | -1.6 | +44.4 | -26.3 | -16.5 |