Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2023-24 Semifinals

4/29 Game 2

Nikaido Rumi finished 1st (+54.1pt). The game was decided in East 1: Nikaido Rumi ron 18,000 from Takamiya Mari, which moved Nikaido Rumi's expected points by +43.6.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 2End● Nikaido Rumi● Takamiya Mari● Matsumoto Yoshihiro● Hori Shingo0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 2End● Nikaido● Takamiya● Matsumoto● Hori
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultNikaido Rumi
1st-place chance
Takamiya Mari
1st-place chance
Matsumoto Yoshihiro
1st-place chance
Hori Shingo
1st-place chance
Nikaido Rumi
Expected pt change
Takamiya Mari
Expected pt change
Matsumoto Yoshihiro
Expected pt change
Hori Shingo
Expected pt change
East 1Nikaido Rumi ron 18,000 from Takamiya Mari24%26%24%26%+43.6-40.8-0.7-2.1
East 1, 1 honbaNikaido Rumi ron 12,000 from Hori Shingo59%6%18%18%+22.5+1.8-1.0-23.3
East 1, 2 honbaDraw79%3%12%5%-4.9+2.3+1.7+0.9
East 2, 3 honbaHori Shingo ron 2,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro77%4%14%6%+1.2-6.9-6.2+11.9
East 3Hori Shingo ron 8,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro79%2%11%9%+1.0+0.9-20.2+18.3
East 4Draw81%2%3%13%+2.3-3.0+5.0-4.2
South 1, 1 honbaTakamiya Mari ron 8,000 from Hori Shingo86%1%3%10%+0.5+19.6-0.5-19.6
South 2Draw90%3%3%4%-1.3+3.2+0.8-2.8
South 2, 1 honbaTakamiya Mari ron 5,800 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro90%4%4%3%-1.2+20.4-17.3-1.9
South 2, 2 honbaMatsumoto Yoshihiro ron 8,000 from Hori Shingo88%7%3%3%+3.1-0.6+21.8-24.3
South 3Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 12,000 from Nikaido Rumi94%1%4%1%-25.6-5.9+31.9-0.3
South 3, 1 honbaHori Shingo ron 1,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro65%8%24%3%+9.6-0.7-10.3+1.4
South 4Hori Shingo tsumo 18,00085%5%7%3%-11.9-23.8-19.0+54.7
South 4, 1 honbaNikaido Rumi ron 1,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro72%3%6%18%+15.0-9.2-3.7-2.1

All 2023-24 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)