Game · 2023-24 Semifinal Series
4/29 Game 2
Rumi Nikaido finished 1st (+54.1pt). The game was decided in East 1: Rumi Nikaido ron 18,000 from Mari Takamiya, which moved Rumi Nikaido's expected points by +40.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Rumi Nikaido 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Rumi Nikaido Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Rumi Nikaido ron 18,000 from Mari Takamiya | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | +40.4 | -40.6 | +0.3 | -0.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Rumi Nikaido ron 12,000 from Shingo Hori | 58% | 5% | 18% | 19% | +24.0 | +3.3 | -1.1 | -26.2 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 80% | 4% | 11% | 5% | -6.3 | +2.3 | +1.1 | +2.9 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Shingo Hori ron 2,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 75% | 5% | 13% | 7% | +2.9 | -6.8 | -5.6 | +9.5 |
| East 3 | Shingo Hori ron 8,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 80% | 2% | 10% | 8% | +1.5 | +1.3 | -21.4 | +18.6 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 83% | 2% | 3% | 12% | +1.5 | -3.8 | +5.6 | -3.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 8,000 from Shingo Hori | 87% | 1% | 3% | 9% | -0.2 | +18.5 | +0.4 | -18.7 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 90% | 3% | 3% | 4% | -1.9 | +5.5 | +0.4 | -4.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 5,800 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 88% | 4% | 4% | 4% | -0.2 | +18.8 | -17.8 | -0.7 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 8,000 from Shingo Hori | 89% | 6% | 2% | 3% | +2.6 | -0.9 | +22.7 | -24.4 |
| South 3 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 12,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 94% | 2% | 3% | 1% | -23.3 | -7.0 | +31.7 | -1.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Shingo Hori ron 1,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 68% | 8% | 22% | 2% | +7.3 | -0.3 | -9.4 | +2.4 |
| South 4 | Shingo Hori tsumo 18,000 | 84% | 5% | 8% | 3% | -12.2 | -21.2 | -21.7 | +55.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Rumi Nikaido ron 1,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 72% | 4% | 6% | 19% | +15.6 | -10.9 | -2.0 | -2.7 |