Game · 2023-24 Semifinal Series
4/30 Game 1
Aiko Hinata finished 1st (+62.9pt). The game was decided in South 2, 1 honba: Aiko Hinata tsumo 12,000, which moved Aiko Hinata's expected points by +38.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takaya Matsugase ron 3,900 from Kei Nakabayashi | 26% | 25% | 25% | 24% | -15.4 | -1.3 | +11.9 | +4.8 |
| East 2 | Takaya Matsugase ron 1,300 from Aiko Hinata | 16% | 24% | 33% | 27% | -0.7 | -1.5 | +4.6 | -2.3 |
| East 3 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 8,000 | 15% | 22% | 37% | 26% | -4.9 | -3.6 | -13.1 | +21.5 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 19% | 25% | 43% | -1.0 | +0.2 | +1.4 | -0.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 12% | 19% | 27% | 42% | +35.5 | -34.9 | -0.1 | -0.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 2,600 from Takaya Matsugase | 33% | 4% | 24% | 40% | +0.6 | +7.9 | -10.1 | +1.7 |
| South 2 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 12,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 33% | 7% | 17% | 42% | -1.1 | +35.1 | -34.3 | +0.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 12,000 | 31% | 22% | 4% | 43% | -11.4 | -21.0 | -5.7 | +38.1 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 6% | 1% | 2% | 91% | -6.9 | +3.5 | +2.1 | +1.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 2,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 3% | 2% | 2% | 93% | -2.3 | +2.4 | -7.4 | +7.3 |
| South 4 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 6,400 from Aiko Hinata | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -11.6 | +20.4 | -1.3 | -7.4 |