Game · 2023-24 Semifinals
4/30 Game 1
Hinata Aiko finished 1st (+62.9pt). The game was decided in South 2, 1 honba: Hinata Aiko tsumo 12,000, which moved Hinata Aiko's expected points by +38.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Matsugase Takaya ron 3,900 from Nakabayashi Kei | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | -14.3 | -0.9 | +14.0 | +1.3 |
| East 2 | Matsugase Takaya ron 1,300 from Hinata Aiko | 15% | 24% | 35% | 27% | -0.5 | -2.0 | +5.7 | -3.2 |
| East 3 | Hinata Aiko tsumo 8,000 | 15% | 21% | 40% | 24% | -4.6 | -3.4 | -15.1 | +23.1 |
| East 4 | Draw | 13% | 19% | 26% | 42% | -2.1 | -1.2 | +1.9 | +1.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Watanabe Futoshi | 12% | 18% | 27% | 44% | +36.2 | -32.0 | -2.2 | -2.0 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Watanabe Futoshi ron 2,600 from Matsugase Takaya | 32% | 5% | 24% | 39% | +2.5 | +5.4 | -8.3 | +0.4 |
| South 2 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 12,000 from Matsugase Takaya | 35% | 6% | 19% | 39% | -0.8 | +34.3 | -33.8 | +0.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Hinata Aiko tsumo 12,000 | 34% | 21% | 5% | 40% | -12.3 | -19.5 | -6.4 | +38.2 |
| South 3 | Draw | 8% | 2% | 2% | 88% | -7.3 | +3.9 | +0.4 | +2.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hinata Aiko ron 2,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 4% | 2% | 2% | 91% | -2.6 | +2.4 | -7.1 | +7.3 |
| South 4 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 6,400 from Hinata Aiko | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -12.0 | +20.3 | -1.2 | -7.1 |