Game · 2023-24 Semifinals
5/2 Game 1
Kobayashi Go finished 1st (+56.1pt). The game was decided in East 2: Kobayashi Go tsumo 12,000, which moved Kobayashi Go's expected points by +30.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Kobayashi Go 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Suzuki Taro 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Kobayashi Go Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Suzuki Taro Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Suzuki Taro tsumo 4,000 | 23% | 24% | 26% | 26% | -5.6 | -1.6 | -2.9 | +10.1 |
| East 2 | Kobayashi Go tsumo 12,000 | 20% | 23% | 23% | 34% | -8.8 | +30.0 | -10.6 | -10.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 14% | 46% | 15% | 24% | -2.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 | +0.6 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Okada Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 13% | 47% | 16% | 24% | +23.1 | -2.7 | -14.5 | -6.0 |
| East 4 | Date Arisa tsumo 16,000 | 26% | 44% | 9% | 21% | -11.8 | -10.9 | +48.6 | -25.9 |
| South 1 | Draw | 19% | 33% | 40% | 7% | -0.4 | +0.1 | -0.1 | +0.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kobayashi Go tsumo 1,100 | 18% | 34% | 40% | 8% | -3.5 | +4.8 | +0.9 | -2.2 |
| South 2 | Kobayashi Go ron 5,800 from Okada Sayaka | 14% | 38% | 40% | 8% | -19.5 | +25.6 | -8.3 | +2.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Date Arisa ron 8,000 from Suzuki Taro | 3% | 67% | 24% | 6% | +3.0 | -8.4 | +25.1 | -19.7 |
| South 3 | Okada Sayaka ron 1,000 from Date Arisa | 1% | 48% | 49% | 1% | +0.9 | +4.7 | -4.8 | -0.8 |
| South 4 | Suzuki Taro tsumo 3,000 | 0% | 57% | 41% | 1% | -1.7 | -0.4 | -2.2 | +4.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Suzuki Taro tsumo 3,000 | 0% | 59% | 39% | 2% | -3.1 | -0.5 | -4.0 | +7.6 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Draw | 0% | 61% | 35% | 3% | -5.0 | +8.0 | -8.1 | +5.2 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Okada Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 77% | 19% | 3% | +17.2 | +7.7 | -8.0 | -16.9 |