Game · 2023-24 Semifinal Series
5/2 Game 1
Go Kobayashi finished 1st (+56.1pt). The game was decided in East 2: Go Kobayashi tsumo 12,000, which moved Go Kobayashi's expected points by +31.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 4,000 | 27% | 25% | 22% | 26% | -7.8 | -3.4 | -0.7 | +11.9 |
| East 2 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 12,000 | 20% | 23% | 23% | 34% | -10.7 | +31.7 | -10.3 | -10.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 47% | 16% | 24% | +2.0 | 0.0 | -0.8 | -1.2 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 8,000 | 15% | 47% | 15% | 24% | +21.5 | -4.3 | -11.7 | -5.5 |
| East 4 | Arisa Date tsumo 16,000 | 26% | 44% | 9% | 21% | -11.1 | -10.4 | +47.3 | -25.7 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 19% | 33% | 41% | 8% | +1.4 | -1.0 | +0.6 | -0.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 1,100 | 20% | 32% | 41% | 8% | -5.7 | +7.9 | -1.5 | -0.7 |
| South 2 | Go Kobayashi ron 5,800 from Sayaka Okada | 14% | 40% | 39% | 7% | -19.0 | +23.7 | -5.7 | +1.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Taro Suzuki | 3% | 67% | 25% | 5% | +1.0 | -7.2 | +24.2 | -18.0 |
| South 3 | Sayaka Okada ron 1,000 from Arisa Date | 1% | 49% | 49% | 1% | +2.5 | +4.1 | -5.1 | -1.5 |
| South 4 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 3,000 | 0% | 58% | 40% | 2% | -1.5 | -1.3 | -0.9 | +3.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Taro Suzuki tsumo 3,000 | 1% | 57% | 41% | 2% | -4.2 | +0.2 | -5.1 | +9.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 61% | 35% | 3% | -4.6 | +8.0 | -8.0 | +4.5 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 77% | 19% | 4% | +17.6 | +7.9 | -8.0 | -17.5 |