Most differences in results are within chance.They do not justify criticizing players.

Player · 38 career games · 2025-26–2026-27

Megumu Aikawa

Too little data yet to pin down the style. Career record: -4.3pt per game, but allowing for luck the difference from average is not clear yet.

Actual / game
-4.3
38 career games
Skill estimate / game
-0.9
90% interval -8.1 to +6.3
Estimate, luck removed
-0.7
adjusted for starting hands, draws, ura-dora
Weight of the record
22%
share of the estimate from the record

Styleleague percentile, career

  • Average win value6,486
  • Riichi rate24.0%
  • Deal-in rate12.0%
  • Win rate19.8%
  • First riichi rate74.9%
  • Average riichi turn9.25
  • Call rate24.5%
  • Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws41.5%
  • Staying in vs riichi14.1%
  • Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)42.2%
  • Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)25.8%
  • Tile efficiency match rate74.4%
  • Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.15
  • Immediate riichi rate73.0%
  • Dama rate9.7%

* Hatched metrics have no league rank: too few games (10 in a season, 40 in a career). The values on the right are estimates pulled toward the league average as far as the data is thin.

Color only for metrics with a good side (red = good, blue = bad). Metrics of style, such as riichi rate, call rate and tile efficiency match rate, are gray. For tenpai turn, further right means later (a larger turn number). Values are estimates.

Placements38 career games, average placement 2.50

  • 1st13.2%5×
  • 2nd39.5%15×
  • 3rd31.6%12×
  • 4th15.8%6×

Riichi and callsbalance and outcome of hands with riichi or calls

  • Riichi income2,301
  • Riichi win rate43.9%
  • Riichi deal-in rate A14.7%
  • Riichi deal-in rate B11.2%
  • Riichi good-wait rate50.4%
  • Riichi exhaustive draw rate19.9%
  • Call income506
  • Win rate after calling30.0%
  • Deal-in rate after calling11.5%
  • Tenpai rate after the first call24.9%

* Hatched metrics have no league rank: too few games (10 in a season, 40 in a career). The values on the right are estimates pulled toward the league average as far as the data is thin.

Income is the average points won or lost in those hands (riichi sticks and honba included).

Net efficiency and morecalculated as on Mahjong Soul Paifuya, per hand

  • Net efficiency776
  • Deal-in loss671
  • Average win turn12.38

* Hatched metrics have no league rank: too few games (10 in a season, 40 in a career). The values on the right are estimates pulled toward the league average as far as the data is thin.

Deal-in loss = deal-in rate × average deal-in; net efficiency = win rate × average win − deal-in loss. Win and deal-in values include honba and riichi sticks. Win turn is the number of tiles discarded at the table when the win came ÷ 4 + 1. Win efficiency (win rate × average win) is not shown: players with a high win rate win smaller hands, the two cancel out, and differences between players cannot be told apart from chance.

Skill estimateleague percentile of the estimates

  • Points per game-0.9
  • Points per game, luck removed-0.7
  • Average placement2.50

* Hatched metrics have no league rank: too few games (10 in a season, 40 in a career). The values on the right are estimates pulled toward the league average as far as the data is thin.

Luckfurther right is luckier; values are differences from the league average (the dealer tsumo rate is the rate itself)

  • Points from luck (/game)-1.8
  • Draw luck+0.2%
  • Starting hand (shanten)-0.02
  • Dora and red fives dealt-0.04
  • Ura-dora luck+0.03
  • Ippatsu rate-0.5%
  • Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)+6.5%
  • Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate13.7%

* Hatched metrics have no league rank: too few games (10 in a season, 40 in a career). The values on the right are estimates pulled toward the league average as far as the data is thin.

Where the points came fromchange in expected points, all stages

  • Own wins+45.2
  • Deal-ins-28.5
  • Others' tsumo-20.7
  • Ron between others-2.6
  • Exhaustive draws+2.1
Change in expected points per game. Total -4.5pt/game (38 games).
As a table
Hand resultHandsTotalPer game
Own wins96+1717.8+45.2
Deal-ins70-1082.1-28.5
Others' tsumo117-786.7-20.7
Ron between others113-100.3-2.6
Exhaustive draws97+81.3+2.1

Hand balance breakdownpoints won or lost per hand, all stages

CategoryFrequencyBalance per handLeague averageDifference
Wins with riichi10.5%+825+919-94
Wins with calls7.5%+433+382+50
Dama wins1.4%+100+173-73
Deal-ins to riichi6.5%-430-360-70
Deal-ins to open hands6.3%-283-203-80
Deal-ins to dama1.4%-140-101-39
Others' tsumo23.7%-620-752+133
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)42.6%-34-60+25
Total (per hand)-149
Every career number (estimate, 90% interval, weight of the record)
Results
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Average placement2.502.50 (2.32 to 2.67)21%—38 games
Points per game-4.3-0.9 (-8.1 to 6.3)22%—38 games
Points per game, luck removed-2.4-0.7 (-7.1 to 5.8)28%—38 games
1st-place rate13.2%22.3% (15.3% to 29.3%)23%—38 games
4th-place rate15.8%22.7% (15.6% to 29.8%)24%—38 games
Style
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Win rate19.5%19.8% (17.8% to 21.8%)38%—493 hands
Deal-in rate14.2%12.0% (10.5% to 13.6%)34%—493 hands
Riichi rate25.8%24.0% (21.8% to 26.1%)40%—493 hands
Call rate24.7%24.5% (21.6% to 27.5%)88%—493 hands
First riichi rate70.9%74.9% (71.1% to 78.6%)22%—127 riichi
Average riichi turn9.139.25 (8.92 to 9.58)43%—127 riichi
Average win value6,2186,486 (6,005 to 6,968)28%—96 wins
Average deal-in value5,5905,619 (5,167 to 6,071)19%—70 deal-ins
Win efficiency1,3581,468 (1,369 to 1,567)5%—493 hands
Deal-in loss820671 (577 to 765)18%—493 hands
Net efficiency538776 (583 to 969)20%—493 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)45.1%42.2% (36.4% to 48.0%)31%—82 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)26.1%25.8% (20.3% to 31.4%)49%—88 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call24.6%24.9% (19.6% to 30.3%)66%—122 first calls
Average win turn12.2212.38 (12.23 to 12.52)2%—96 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws44.3%41.5% (36.1% to 47.0%)35%—97 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi14.6%14.1% (12.4% to 15.9%)11%—247 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate74.6%74.4% (73.0% to 75.8%)88%—2,548 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)1.061.06 (0.98 to 1.15)80%—2,448 discards
Breaking shape for value1.8%1.9% (1.5% to 2.3%)73%—2,548 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)7.788.15 (8.02 to 8.27)6%—101 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate74.4%73.0% (67.7% to 78.2%)48%—101 tenpai hands
Dama rate7.3%9.7% (5.2% to 14.2%)61%—96 wins
Riichi income1,3582,301 (1,654 to 2,947)25%—127 riichi
Riichi win rate40.9%43.9% (38.8% to 48.9%)42%—127 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A22.0%14.7% (12.9% to 16.5%)5%—127 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B12.6%11.2% (8.9% to 13.5%)12%—127 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate52.0%50.4% (45.7% to 55.1%)30%—127 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate21.3%19.9% (16.1% to 23.8%)34%—127 riichi
Call income600506 (116 to 895)17%—122 calls
Win rate after calling30.3%30.0% (25.5% to 34.4%)32%—122 calls
Deal-in rate after calling11.5%11.5% (8.4% to 14.6%)32%—122 calls
Luck (difference from the league average)
MetricActualPercentileCount
Starting hand (shanten)-0.02—493 hands
Dora and red fives dealt-0.04—493 hands
Draw luck+0.2%—5,932 tile draws
Ura-dora luck+0.03—52 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate-0.5%—52 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)+6.5%—90 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate13.7%—117 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)-1.8—38 games

By seasonRegular Season

2026-27 (12 games · skill estimate -0.3pt/game)

Style

  • Average win value6,469
  • Riichi rate23.2%
  • Deal-in rate11.4%
  • Win rate19.4%
  • First riichi rate76.0%
  • Average riichi turn9.22
  • Call rate22.4%
  • Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws39.9%
  • Staying in vs riichi14.2%
  • Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)41.7%
  • Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)25.4%
  • Tile efficiency match rate73.8%
  • Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.16
  • Immediate riichi rate71.5%
  • Dama rate10.4%

Where the points came from

  • Own wins+37.5
  • Deal-ins-25.7
  • Others' tsumo-16.3
  • Ron between others-2.0
  • Exhaustive draws+2.2
Change in expected points per game. Total -4.4pt/game (12 games).
As a table
Hand resultHandsTotalPer game
Own wins27+449.4+37.5
Deal-ins23-308.4-25.7
Others' tsumo35-195.8-16.3
Ron between others34-24.6-2.0
Exhaustive draws43+26.8+2.2

Luck

  • Points from luck (/game)-6.6
  • Draw luck-1.1%
  • Starting hand (shanten)+0.00
  • Dora and red fives dealt-0.01
  • Ura-dora luck-0.17
  • Ippatsu rate+1.7%
  • Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)+2.8%
  • Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate14.3%
Every number for 2026-27
Results
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Average placement2.422.49 (2.27 to 2.72)8%6512 games
Points per game-4.0-0.3 (-9.6 to 9.0)8%4412 games
Points per game, luck removed2.60.3 (-8.5 to 9.1)11%6512 games
1st-place rate16.7%24.3% (15.2% to 33.5%)9%3812 games
4th-place rate8.3%23.4% (14.1% to 32.7%)9%9212 games
Style
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Win rate16.7%19.4% (16.5% to 22.3%)17%20162 hands
Deal-in rate14.2%11.4% (9.2% to 13.6%)15%9162 hands
Riichi rate25.3%23.2% (20.1% to 26.3%)18%76162 hands
Call rate22.2%22.4% (17.8% to 27.0%)71%28162 hands
First riichi rate75.6%76.0% (71.2% to 80.8%)8%4641 riichi
Average riichi turn8.769.22 (8.74 to 9.71)19%7341 riichi
Average win value5,3566,469 (5,800 to 7,138)10%2027 wins
Average deal-in value4,3175,531 (4,964 to 6,098)7%9523 deal-ins
Win efficiency1,0231,466 (1,357 to 1,575)2%6162 hands
Deal-in loss646639 (523 to 756)7%44162 hands
Net efficiency377801 (557 to 1,044)8%12162 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)48.0%41.7% (33.6% to 49.8%)12%6925 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)25.0%25.4% (17.1% to 33.7%)24%4928 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call30.6%27.5% (19.4% to 35.5%)37%7336 first calls
Average win turn12.3212.38 (12.23 to 12.53)1%4427 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws39.5%39.9% (32.8% to 47.1%)19%4443 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi16.7%14.2% (12.1% to 16.2%)4%6578 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate74.1%73.8% (71.6% to 75.9%)72%52846 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)1.041.05 (0.92 to 1.17)58%57810 discards
Breaking shape for value1.7%1.8% (1.3% to 2.4%)47%33846 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)7.978.16 (8.03 to 8.30)2%3835 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate71.2%71.5% (63.9% to 79.2%)24%4535 tenpai hands
Dama rate3.7%10.4% (3.5% to 17.3%)30%1327 wins
Riichi income8242,444 (1,586 to 3,303)10%641 riichi
Riichi win rate34.1%43.8% (36.4% to 51.1%)19%1241 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A22.0%14.4% (12.5% to 16.4%)2%1241 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B12.2%11.1% (8.4% to 13.8%)4%3341 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate61.0%51.1% (44.7% to 57.5%)12%9541 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate29.3%20.7% (15.3% to 26.1%)15%9541 riichi
Call income892510 (23.88 to 995)6%7136 calls
Win rate after calling33.3%30.2% (23.9% to 36.6%)12%6536 calls
Deal-in rate after calling5.6%10.8% (6.4% to 15.2%)12%8436 calls
Luck (difference from the league average)
MetricActualPercentileCount
Starting hand (shanten)+0.0041162 hands
Dora and red fives dealt-0.0133162 hands
Draw luck-1.1%62,037 tile draws
Ura-dora luck-0.171214 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate+1.7%5714 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)+2.8%7131 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate14.3%4035 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)-6.61412 games
Hand balance breakdown
CategoryFrequencyBalance per handLeague averageDifference
Wins with riichi8.6%+651+919-268
Wins with calls7.4%+335+382-47
Dama wins0.6%+37+173-136
Deal-ins to riichi6.8%-385-360-25
Deal-ins to open hands7.4%-292-203-89
Deal-ins to dama0.0%0-101+101
Others' tsumo21.6%-553-752+199
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)47.5%-96-60-36
Total (per hand)-303
2025-26 (26 games · skill estimate -0.7pt/game)

Style

  • Average win value6,583
  • Riichi rate23.7%
  • Deal-in rate11.8%
  • Win rate20.2%
  • First riichi rate74.8%
  • Average riichi turn9.32
  • Call rate25.5%
  • Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws41.9%
  • Staying in vs riichi14.0%
  • Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)41.6%
  • Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)26.0%
  • Tile efficiency match rate74.5%
  • Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.15
  • Immediate riichi rate73.3%
  • Dama rate10.9%

Where the points came from

  • Own wins+48.8
  • Deal-ins-29.8
  • Others' tsumo-22.7
  • Ron between others-2.9
  • Exhaustive draws+2.1
Change in expected points per game. Total -4.5pt/game (26 games).
As a table
Hand resultHandsTotalPer game
Own wins69+1268.4+48.8
Deal-ins47-773.7-29.8
Others' tsumo82-591.0-22.7
Ron between others79-75.7-2.9
Exhaustive draws54+54.5+2.1

Luck

  • Points from luck (/game)+0.3
  • Draw luck+0.9%
  • Starting hand (shanten)-0.03
  • Dora and red fives dealt-0.06
  • Ura-dora luck+0.11
  • Ippatsu rate-1.3%
  • Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)+8.4%
  • Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate13.4%
Every number for 2025-26
Results
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Average placement2.542.50 (2.31 to 2.70)15%5226 games
Points per game-4.4-0.7 (-8.7 to 7.3)16%3426 games
Points per game, luck removed-4.7-1.0 (-8.3 to 6.3)21%3426 games
1st-place rate11.5%22.8% (15.0% to 30.6%)17%1426 games
4th-place rate19.2%23.9% (16.0% to 31.8%)18%7026 games
Style
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Win rate20.8%20.2% (17.9% to 22.5%)29%49331 hands
Deal-in rate14.2%11.8% (10.0% to 13.5%)26%6331 hands
Riichi rate26.0%23.7% (21.3% to 26.2%)31%82331 hands
Call rate26.0%25.5% (22.0% to 29.0%)83%62331 hands
First riichi rate68.6%74.8% (70.7% to 79.0%)16%486 riichi
Average riichi turn9.309.32 (8.95 to 9.70)34%4486 riichi
Average win value6,5556,583 (6,046 to 7,119)22%5469 wins
Average deal-in value6,2135,707 (5,207 to 6,206)14%1147 deal-ins
Win efficiency1,5221,476 (1,373 to 1,579)4%57331 hands
Deal-in loss905672 (569 to 776)13%4331 hands
Net efficiency617804 (590 to 1,018)14%24331 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)43.9%41.6% (35.0% to 48.1%)24%6257 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)26.7%26.0% (19.7% to 32.3%)40%4760 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call22.1%23.6% (17.6% to 29.6%)58%4986 first calls
Average win turn12.1812.38 (12.23 to 12.52)2%5769 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws48.1%41.9% (35.2% to 48.6%)23%7354 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi13.6%14.0% (12.2% to 15.9%)8%49169 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate74.9%74.5% (72.9% to 76.1%)83%591,702 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)1.081.07 (0.97 to 1.17)73%801,638 discards
Breaking shape for value1.9%1.9% (1.5% to 2.4%)64%591,702 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)7.688.15 (8.02 to 8.28)4%166 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate76.1%73.3% (67.2% to 79.4%)37%6766 tenpai hands
Dama rate8.7%10.9% (5.9% to 15.9%)53%4269 wins
Riichi income1,6132,433 (1,705 to 3,161)19%1186 riichi
Riichi win rate44.2%45.4% (39.6% to 51.2%)33%2986 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A22.1%14.6% (12.7% to 16.4%)3%186 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B12.8%11.2% (8.7% to 13.7%)9%3486 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate47.7%49.3% (43.9% to 54.6%)22%4786 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate17.4%18.8% (14.4% to 23.2%)26%5486 riichi
Call income478485 (63.09 to 908)13%5786 calls
Win rate after calling29.1%29.6% (24.6% to 34.6%)25%4786 calls
Deal-in rate after calling14.0%12.1% (8.6% to 15.6%)25%2686 calls
Luck (difference from the league average)
MetricActualPercentileCount
Starting hand (shanten)-0.0316331 hands
Dora and red fives dealt-0.0614331 hands
Draw luck+0.9%953,895 tile draws
Ura-dora luck+0.117238 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate-1.3%4738 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)+8.4%9559 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate13.4%3482 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)+0.35426 games
Hand balance breakdown
CategoryFrequencyBalance per handLeague averageDifference
Wins with riichi11.5%+910+919-9
Wins with calls7.6%+480+382+98
Dama wins1.8%+131+173-42
Deal-ins to riichi6.3%-452-360-92
Deal-ins to open hands5.7%-278-203-75
Deal-ins to dama2.1%-208-101-107
Others' tsumo24.8%-653-752+100
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)40.2%-5-60+55
Total (per hand)-73

Players with a similar styleclosest career style metrics first

Not shown: fewer than 40 career games.