Game · 2018-19 Final Series
3/2 Game 1
Taro Suzuki finished 1st (+65.3pt). The game was decided in East 3, 3 honba: Taro Suzuki tsumo 12,000, which moved Taro Suzuki's expected points by +37.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 24% | 22% | 27% | -5.5 | +6.3 | +1.5 | -2.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 4,000 | 21% | 30% | 25% | 24% | +19.4 | -12.6 | -5.8 | -1.0 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 37% | 19% | 21% | 24% | +1.9 | -8.3 | +3.2 | +3.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 2,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 37% | 15% | 22% | 26% | -0.9 | +2.5 | +7.3 | -8.9 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 18,000 | 36% | 17% | 28% | 19% | -17.2 | -17.1 | +47.4 | -13.2 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Taro Suzuki tsumo 12,000 | 16% | 6% | 69% | 9% | -9.6 | +37.2 | -17.0 | -10.6 |
| East 4 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 14% | 26% | 52% | 8% | +21.9 | -5.5 | -4.9 | -11.5 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 22% | 47% | 4% | +6.2 | -3.3 | -3.0 | +0.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 5,200 from Aki Nikaido | 34% | 19% | 43% | 4% | -19.0 | -1.6 | +20.7 | -0.1 |
| South 2 | Taro Suzuki ron 12,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 13% | 14% | 70% | 4% | -6.3 | +32.3 | -7.5 | -18.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 38% | 53% | 0% | -2.0 | +5.9 | -3.3 | -0.6 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 5,200 | 7% | 45% | 47% | 1% | -5.3 | -3.1 | -0.7 | +9.1 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 46% | 48% | 1% | -3.9 | +8.2 | -5.0 | +0.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Taro Suzuki tsumo 5,200 | 2% | 59% | 38% | 1% | -1.7 | +24.5 | -15.4 | -7.4 |