Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2018-19 Finals

3/3 Game 1

Nikaido Aki finished 1st (+73.2pt). The game was decided in East 3: Nikaido Aki tsumo 16,000, which moved Nikaido Aki's expected points by +43.1.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 2End● Nikaido Aki● Maehara Yudai● Matsumoto Yoshihiro● Murakami Jun0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Nikaido● Maehara● Matsumoto● Murakami
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultMaehara Yudai
1st-place chance
Matsumoto Yoshihiro
1st-place chance
Murakami Jun
1st-place chance
Nikaido Aki
1st-place chance
Maehara Yudai
Expected pt change
Matsumoto Yoshihiro
Expected pt change
Murakami Jun
Expected pt change
Nikaido Aki
Expected pt change
East 1Nikaido Aki ron 8,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro24%25%27%24%-1.5-23.8+0.9+24.3
East 2Draw21%12%25%42%+2.6+3.2-0.3-5.6
East 2, 1 honbaMurakami Jun ron 8,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro23%14%25%38%-1.2-21.3+24.5-1.9
East 3Nikaido Aki tsumo 16,00019%5%43%33%-9.9-7.5-25.7+43.1
East 4Maehara Yudai ron 8,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro7%2%13%78%+19.6-15.2-2.9-1.5
South 1Nikaido Aki ron 5,200 from Maehara Yudai15%1%10%75%-15.4+1.5+1.6+12.3
South 2Nikaido Aki ron 1,000 from Maehara Yudai2%0%6%91%-0.1-3.00.0+3.1
South 3Maehara Yudai tsumo 4,0001%0%4%95%+12.8-0.8-13.0+1.0
South 4Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 12,000 from Murakami Jun1%0%0%100%+2.0+13.3-14.4-0.9

All 2018-19 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)